Gold cracks the 4,200 floor — sitting on the 0.618, with the dollar doing the work

PAXG just printed a 254-point session range and closed the morning sitting almost exactly on the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of last week's swing — the lower edge of the golden pocket. The driver isn't a real-yield repricing (TIPS only ticked down 2bp); it's DXY ripping +0.98% intraday as fed-funds futures put a 40% July hike back on the table. The technical state is oversold on 1h/4h/1d but the daily trend is broken on every EMA, and managed-money is still sitting on a +173k long that hasn't unwound. The cleanest trades are bounce-fades into 4,229–4,278 supply and oversold scalps into the 4,097–4,150 golden pocket, in that priority order. Net desk bias: SELL, weighted to macro over the oversold tape.

The session

Spot gold (PAXG) trades 4,156.26 as of the 08:00 UTC print, down 3.71% intraday and -3.11% on the week. The 4,120–4,374 session range is enormous — roughly 6% peak-to-trough — and the close print is sitting just above session lows, which is the worst possible structural close in a downtrend day. COMEX front-month (GC) is at 4,167.50, holding a thin +0.27% premium to PAXG, so the basis is intact and not signalling forced spot selling.

The catalyst the tape is telling us about is dollar-led, not gold-specific. Investing.com's lede was explicit: "Gold prices fall as dollar jumps on significantly hawkish Fed signals" and "Gold heads for 3rd weekly fall as hawkish Fed eclipses Iran truce cheer." DXY at 100.95 is overbought (1h RSI 71.3, 4h RSI 77.4) but has not yet reversed, and our DXY↔XAU 30-day daily-return correlation is sitting at -0.45 — strong enough that any DXY mean-reversion is worth a bounce in gold and not much more.

Multi-timeframe read

The 15m has put in the first reflex of the day: RSI back to 50.4, MACD histogram turning positive (+4.23 ↑), and price just barely reclaimed the 15m EMA20 (+$4.7). That is a low-quality long signal in isolation — it's an oversold relief, not a trend turn.

The 1h is the cleanest read: RSI 33.3 (technically oversold), MACD histogram still negative but rolling up, price 31 points below EMA20 and 78 below EMA50. Classic capitulation-then-attempted-reclaim setup. The 4h echoes this: RSI 33.6, price 83 points under EMA20 with the histogram trying to base.

The 1d is the problem. RSI 35.4 is oversold but the EMA structure is fully broken: spot is 147 below EMA20, 280 below EMA50, and 348 below EMA200, with all three sloping the wrong way. Daily MACD histogram is +0.89 but rolling down — the only timeframe still actively deteriorating. So the lower timeframes want a bounce; the daily wants more downside. They agree on direction (down) and disagree on timing — which is exactly the geometry of a fade-the-bounce day.

Investing.com's automated daily aggregate is Strong Sell (2 buy / 10 sell on the MAs, sell on RSI, sell on MACD). I'm slightly less bearish than they are at this exact tick because I respect the lower-TF oversold, but on a swing horizon I agree with them and I'm marking it.

Macro frame

Lead with what actually drives gold: the 10y real yield (TIPS) printed 2.21%, down 2bp day-over-day. That is, marginally, a gold tailwind. Breakeven inflation is 2.25% (-1bp), 10y nominal 4.46% (-3bp). So the entire down-day in gold is happening with the real-yield component of the discount rate slightly lower — meaning the move you're seeing in gold is not macro-driven from the rates side. It is dollar-driven.

The Fed-odds line explains the dollar. CME fed-funds futures imply 60% hold / 40% hike at the Jul 29 FOMC, with zero cut probability. That's a hawkish skew that wasn't there a week ago, and it's pulling DXY higher while real yields haven't yet caught up — the dollar is front-running the rates move. Per Bloomberg, "ECB's Lane Says Upper Range of Neutral Has Crept Up to 2.5%" and "ECB's Kocher Says Inflation to Stay for a While After Iran Deal" — Europe is hawkish too, but the dollar still wins because the US path is more credible and ECB's Wunsch is keeping a July hike in play (Reuters). DXY ripping with ECB also hawkish tells you the relative-positioning story is dollar-positive on net.

Cross-asset: VIX 16.93 (-8.2%) — no risk-off bid for gold here. GVZ at 28.45 is elevated for a gold-vol print and tells you the options market is pricing this move as real, not a tail twitch. Gold/silver ratio at 64.3 with silver $64.67 is a precious-metals regime that is neither stress-bid for gold nor industrial-bid for silver — a neutral PM tape. WTI $76.36 (-0.3%) means oil isn't pushing on breakevens. Bitcoin -2.9% — the "digital gold" divergence is not actually a divergence today; both gold and BTC are getting hit by the dollar.

CFTC COT (2026-06-09 snapshot) shows managed money still net long +173,837 (207k long vs 34k short). That positioning has not unwound yet, and a 1-week-stale long that large is a structural overhang for the next two sessions. Commercials are short -201k, which is normal hedger posture but tells you the producer book is comfortable selling rallies here.

Two scenarios

Conviction figures here are my qualitative confidence — they are not back-tested probabilities.

Sell setup

• Trigger: Rejection back below 4,229 (0.382 fib / daily pivot 4,230.58) after a retest of the 4,229–4,278 supply (daily R1 at 4,277.78).
• Invalidation: Daily close above 4,302.94 (daily EMA20) — that breaks the bear structure on the timeframe that matters most.
• Target: 4,090.23 (daily S2), with a stretch to 4,041.03 (weekly S1) if the managed-money long starts unwinding.
• Conviction: 60%
• Rationale: Daily trend broken, daily MACD still rolling down, investing.com aggregate is Strong Sell, DXY momentum intact, COT long overhang. The 4,229–4,278 zone is daily pivot + R1 + 0.382 fib — three reasons supply prints there.

Buy setup

• Trigger: Reclaim and 15m close above 4,151.81 (0.618 fib) with the 1h RSI base holding above 30.
• Invalidation: Break of 4,041.03 (weekly S1).
• Target: 4,229.25 (0.382 fib / daily pivot).
• Conviction: 40%
• Rationale: Pure oversold-mean-reversion trade into the golden pocket. 1h/4h RSI <34, GVZ elevated, 15m MACD already turned. Lower conviction because the daily is still actively deteriorating and you're fading every higher-TF read.

Levels worth marking

• 4,418 / 4,371 / 4,369: daily R3, daily R2, weekly R1 — confluence ceiling for any squeeze; not in play today.
• 4,303: daily EMA20 — the line that defines bear-structure intact.
• 4,277 / 4,231: daily R1 / daily pivot — primary supply zone, also 0.236–0.382 fib confluence.
• 4,198: weekly pivot — first overhead the bulls have to reclaim to change the weekly tone.
• 4,190 / 4,152: 0.5–0.618 fib — the golden pocket we're sitting in right now.
• 4,137: daily S1 — micro support.
• 4,097 / 4,090: 0.786 fib / daily S2 — primary demand zone for the scalp long.
• 4,041: weekly S1 — last weekly defensive level; loss of this opens 3,997 (daily S3) and 3,870 (weekly S2) on a swing horizon.

Calendar / catalysts

From the pre-fetched ForexFactory block, the high-impact prints of the week are already out: BOJ kept policy below 1.00% (Tue Jun 16), RBA held at 4.35% with no surprises (Tue Jun 16), and ECB's Lagarde spoke Monday. For today (Fri Jun 19) the only medium-impact print is UK Retail Sales m/m at +1.2% (vs +0.5% forecast) — already released, mildly GBP-positive and not a gold driver. There is no high-impact US data on the calendar block today, which means gold's afternoon will be driven by DXY positioning into the weekend and any unscheduled Fed-speak. Headline-risk only.

Sources cited

Price snapshot and rates decomposition (Treasury.gov real yields, CFTC COT, fed-funds futures implied path); ForexFactory economic calendar; onewordnews aggregate sentiment (commodity avg ~0.00, ECB-heavy tape); investing.com automated technical aggregate (Strong Sell) plus their headlines ("Gold heads for 3rd weekly fall as hawkish Fed eclipses Iran truce cheer", "Gold stuck in bear flag near $4,228"); Bloomberg (Lane neutral-rate update, Kocher on inflation persistence); Reuters (Wunsch keeping July hike in play).

Desk summary & bias

Gold is sitting on the 0.618 retracement of last week's 4,026–4,355 swing with the daily trend broken on every EMA and the dollar — not real yields — doing the damage. The dominant driver right now is the fed-funds path repricing hawkish (60% hold / 40% hike Jul 29) lifting DXY +0.98%, while TIPS are quietly flat-to-down. The lower timeframes are oversold and want a relief bounce; the daily and the COT overhang say sell that bounce. The single most important thing to watch next is whether 4,151 (0.618 fib) holds through the US session — losing it cleanly puts 4,090 in play before the weekend.

#	Bias	Setup	Trigger	Entry zone	Invalidation	Target	Conviction	Why
1	SELL	Bounce-fade into supply	Rejection back under 4,229 after retest	4,229 – 4,278	4,303	4,090	60%	Daily R1 + daily pivot + 0.382 fib confluence; daily trend broken; COT long overhang
2	BUY	Oversold scalp in golden pocket	15m reclaim above 4,151.81	4,097 – 4,150	4,041	4,229	40%	1h/4h RSI <34, 15m MACD turned, sitting on 0.618 fib, GVZ elevated
3	SELL	Trend-continuation break	Break and retest of 4,090 from below	4,090 (on retest)	4,198	3,997	50%	Confirms weekly-pivot loss, opens daily S3 + weekly S1 confluence

Net desk bias: SELL. Real yields are softer but DXY is pricing the hawkish Fed path faster than rates are, and that's a dollar-led gold drawdown that historically continues until DXY momentum breaks — and 1h DXY RSI 71 with 4h at 77 has room to overshoot before it does. The 1d MACD rolling down with a +173k managed-money long still unhedged is exactly the configuration that produces a second leg. I'm weighting macro (DXY + Fed odds + daily structure) over the lower-TF oversold read; the oversold is real but it's a tactical scalp, not a position trade. If 4,303 (daily EMA20) reclaims on a daily close, I flip to neutral; only a weekly close above 4,369 flips me bull.

(not financial advice)

//@version=5
indicator("Gold Desk 2026-06-19 — bias SELL", overlay=true, max_lines_count=300, max_labels_count=300, max_boxes_count=100)

// ── Inputs ──
showFibs   = input.bool(true, "Show Fibonacci")
showZones  = input.bool(true, "Show S/D Zones")
showTrades = input.bool(true, "Show Trade Ideas")
showPivots = input.bool(true, "Show Pivots")

// ── EMAs ──
ema20  = ta.ema(close, 20)
ema50  = ta.ema(close, 50)
ema200 = ta.ema(close, 200)
plot(ema20,  "EMA20",  color=color.new(color.yellow, 0), linewidth=1)
plot(ema50,  "EMA50",  color=color.new(color.orange, 0), linewidth=1)
plot(ema200, "EMA200", color=color.new(color.red, 0),    linewidth=2)

// ── Swing anchors (last-week range from brief) ──
swingHi    = 4354.58
swingLo    = 4026.48
swingRange = swingHi - swingLo

// ── Fibonacci retracement of weekly swing ──
fib236 = swingHi - 0.236 * swingRange
fib382 = swingHi - 0.382 * swingRange
fib500 = swingHi - 0.500 * swingRange
fib618 = swingHi - 0.618 * swingRange
fib786 = swingHi - 0.786 * swingRange
hline(showFibs ? fib236 : na, "Fib 0.236", color=color.new(color.gray, 50), linestyle=hline.style_dotted)
hline(showFibs ? fib382 : na, "Fib 0.382", color=color.new(color.gray, 30), linestyle=hline.style_dotted)
hline(showFibs ? fib500 : na, "Fib 0.500", color=color.new(color.aqua, 30), linestyle=hline.style_dashed)
hline(showFibs ? fib618 : na, "Fib 0.618", color=color.new(color.aqua, 30), linestyle=hline.style_dashed)
hline(showFibs ? fib786 : na, "Fib 0.786", color=color.new(color.gray, 30), linestyle=hline.style_dotted)

// ── Golden Pocket (0.5 – 0.618) ──
var box gp = na
if showFibs and barstate.islast
    box.delete(gp)
    gp := box.new(bar_index - 120, fib500, bar_index + 40, fib618, bgcolor=color.new(color.yellow, 80), border_color=color.new(color.yellow, 40), text="Golden Pocket 0.5–0.618", text_size=size.small, text_color=color.new(color.yellow, 0))

// ── Pivots: daily ──
hline(showPivots ? 4418.13 : na, "Daily R3", color=color.new(color.red, 60),   linestyle=hline.style_dotted)
hline(showPivots ? 4370.93 : na, "Daily R2", color=color.new(color.red, 40))
hline(showPivots ? 4277.78 : na, "Daily R1", color=color.new(color.red, 20))
hline(showPivots ? 4230.58 : na, "Daily P",  color=color.new(color.white, 30))
hline(showPivots ? 4137.43 : na, "Daily S1", color=color.new(color.green, 20))
hline(showPivots ? 4090.23 : na, "Daily S2", color=color.new(color.green, 40))
hline(showPivots ? 3997.08 : na, "Daily S3", color=color.new(color.green, 60), linestyle=hline.style_dotted)

// ── Pivots: weekly (key levels) ──
hline(showPivots ? 4369.13 : na, "Weekly R1", color=color.new(color.fuchsia, 40), linestyle=hline.style_dashed)
hline(showPivots ? 4197.80 : na, "Weekly P",  color=color.new(color.fuchsia, 20), linestyle=hline.style_dashed)
hline(showPivots ? 4041.03 : na, "Weekly S1", color=color.new(color.fuchsia, 40), linestyle=hline.style_dashed)

// ── Supply / Demand Zones ──
var box supplyTop = na
var box supplyMid = na
var box demandTop = na
var box demandDeep = na
if showZones and barstate.islast
    box.delete(supplyTop)
    box.delete(supplyMid)
    box.delete(demandTop)
    box.delete(demandDeep)
    supplyTop  := box.new(bar_index - 120, 4373.95, bar_index + 40, 4354.58, bgcolor=color.new(color.red, 85), border_color=color.new(color.red, 60), text="Supply 4,355–4,374 (session hi / wk hi)", text_size=size.small, text_color=color.new(color.red, 0))
    supplyMid  := box.new(bar_index - 120, 4277.78, bar_index + 40, 4230.58, bgcolor=color.new(color.red, 88), border_color=color.new(color.red, 70), text="Supply 4,230–4,278 (D-pivot / D-R1)",    text_size=size.small, text_color=color.new(color.red, 20))
    demandTop  := box.new(bar_index - 120, 4150.00, bar_index + 40, 4090.23, bgcolor=color.new(color.green, 85), border_color=color.new(color.green, 60), text="Demand 4,090–4,150 (0.618–0.786 fib / S2)", text_size=size.small, text_color=color.new(color.green, 0))
    demandDeep := box.new(bar_index - 120, 4041.03, bar_index + 40, 3997.08, bgcolor=color.new(color.green, 88), border_color=color.new(color.green, 70), text="Deep Demand 3,997–4,041 (W-S1 / D-S3)",    text_size=size.small, text_color=color.new(color.green, 20))

// ── Trade Ideas ──
var box   sellEntry = na
var line  sellInval = na
var line  sellTgt   = na
var label sellLbl   = na
var box   buyEntry  = na
var line  buyInval  = na
var line  buyTgt    = na
var label buyLbl    = na
if showTrades and barstate.islast
    box.delete(sellEntry)
    line.delete(sellInval)
    line.delete(sellTgt)
    label.delete(sellLbl)
    box.delete(buyEntry)
    line.delete(buyInval)
    line.delete(buyTgt)
    label.delete(buyLbl)
    sellEntry := box.new(bar_index + 5, 4277.78, bar_index + 50, 4229.25, bgcolor=color.new(color.red, 70), border_color=color.red, text="SELL entry 4,229–4,278", text_size=size.small, text_color=color.white)
    sellInval := line.new(bar_index + 5, 4302.94, bar_index + 50, 4302.94, color=color.red, style=line.style_dashed, width=2)
    sellTgt   := line.new(bar_index + 5, 4090.23, bar_index + 50, 4090.23, color=color.red, style=line.style_solid,  width=2)
    sellLbl   := label.new(bar_index + 50, 4253.50, "SELL bounce-fade · 60% conv\ninval 4,303 · tgt 4,090", color=color.new(color.red, 30), textcolor=color.white, style=label.style_label_left, size=size.small)
    buyEntry  := box.new(bar_index + 5, 4150.00, bar_index + 50, 4096.70, bgcolor=color.new(color.green, 70), border_color=color.green, text="BUY entry 4,097–4,150", text_size=size.small, text_color=color.white)
    buyInval  := line.new(bar_index + 5, 4041.03, bar_index + 50, 4041.03, color=color.green, style=line.style_dashed, width=2)
    buyTgt    := line.new(bar_index + 5, 4229.25, bar_index + 50, 4229.25, color=color.green, style=line.style_solid,  width=2)
    buyLbl    := label.new(bar_index + 50, 4123.00, "BUY golden-pocket scalp · 40% conv\ninval 4,041 · tgt 4,229", color=color.new(color.green, 30), textcolor=color.white, style=label.style_label_left, size=size.small)

// ── Net Bias Banner ──
var table biasBanner = table.new(position.top_right, 2, 5, border_width=1)
if barstate.islast
    table.cell(biasBanner, 0, 0, "Gold Desk · 2026-06-19", bgcolor=color.new(color.black, 20), text_color=color.white,  text_size=size.small)
    table.cell(biasBanner, 1, 0, "Bias: SELL",             bgcolor=color.new(color.red, 30),   text_color=color.white,  text_size=size.small)
    table.cell(biasBanner, 0, 1, "10y Real (TIPS)",        bgcolor=color.new(color.black, 50), text_color=color.silver, text_size=size.tiny)
    table.cell(biasBanner, 1, 1, "2.21% (-2bp)",           bgcolor=color.new(color.black, 50), text_color=color.white,  text_size=size.tiny)
    table.cell(biasBanner, 0, 2, "DXY",                    bgcolor=color.new(color.black, 50), text_color=color.silver, text_size=size.tiny)
    table.cell(biasBanner, 1, 2, "100.95 (+0.98%)",        bgcolor=color.new(color.black, 50), text_color=color.white,  text_size=size.tiny)
    table.cell(biasBanner, 0, 3, "Fed Jul: hold / hike",   bgcolor=color.new(color.black, 50), text_color=color.silver, text_size=size.tiny)
    table.cell(biasBanner, 1, 3, "60% / 40%",              bgcolor=color.new(color.black, 50), text_color=color.white,  text_size=size.tiny)
    table.cell(biasBanner, 0, 4, "Aggregate (invest.com)", bgcolor=color.new(color.black, 50), text_color=color.silver, text_size=size.tiny)
    table.cell(biasBanner, 1, 4, "Strong Sell",            bgcolor=color.new(color.black, 50), text_color=color.white,  text_size=size.tiny)

{"bias": "SELL",
 "ideas": [
   {"bias": "SELL", "label": "Bounce-fade into supply", "entry_low": 4229, "entry_high": 4278,
    "invalidation": 4303, "target": 4090, "conviction": 60},
   {"bias": "BUY",  "label": "Golden-pocket scalp",     "entry_low": 4097, "entry_high": 4150,
    "invalidation": 4041, "target": 4229, "conviction": 40},
   {"bias": "SELL", "label": "Trend-continuation break", "entry_low": 4090, "entry_high": 4090,
    "invalidation": 4198, "target": 3997, "conviction": 50}
 ]}

TradingView chart script

Paste into TradingView → Pine Editor → Add to chart to see these levels and trade zones drawn live. (Also attached to the email edition as a .pine file.)

//@version=5
indicator("Gold Desk 2026-06-19 — bias SELL", overlay=true, max_lines_count=300, max_labels_count=300, max_boxes_count=100)

// ── Inputs ──
showFibs   = input.bool(true, "Show Fibonacci")
showZones  = input.bool(true, "Show S/D Zones")
showTrades = input.bool(true, "Show Trade Ideas")
showPivots = input.bool(true, "Show Pivots")

// ── EMAs ──
ema20  = ta.ema(close, 20)
ema50  = ta.ema(close, 50)
ema200 = ta.ema(close, 200)
plot(ema20,  "EMA20",  color=color.new(color.yellow, 0), linewidth=1)
plot(ema50,  "EMA50",  color=color.new(color.orange, 0), linewidth=1)
plot(ema200, "EMA200", color=color.new(color.red, 0),    linewidth=2)

// ── Swing anchors (last-week range from brief) ──
swingHi    = 4354.58
swingLo    = 4026.48
swingRange = swingHi - swingLo

// ── Fibonacci retracement of weekly swing ──
fib236 = swingHi - 0.236 * swingRange
fib382 = swingHi - 0.382 * swingRange
fib500 = swingHi - 0.500 * swingRange
fib618 = swingHi - 0.618 * swingRange
fib786 = swingHi - 0.786 * swingRange
hline(showFibs ? fib236 : na, "Fib 0.236", color=color.new(color.gray, 50), linestyle=hline.style_dotted)
hline(showFibs ? fib382 : na, "Fib 0.382", color=color.new(color.gray, 30), linestyle=hline.style_dotted)
hline(showFibs ? fib500 : na, "Fib 0.500", color=color.new(color.aqua, 30), linestyle=hline.style_dashed)
hline(showFibs ? fib618 : na, "Fib 0.618", color=color.new(color.aqua, 30), linestyle=hline.style_dashed)
hline(showFibs ? fib786 : na, "Fib 0.786", color=color.new(color.gray, 30), linestyle=hline.style_dotted)

// ── Golden Pocket (0.5 – 0.618) ──
var box gp = na
if showFibs and barstate.islast
    box.delete(gp)
    gp := box.new(bar_index - 120, fib500, bar_index + 40, fib618, bgcolor=color.new(color.yellow, 80), border_color=color.new(color.yellow, 40), text="Golden Pocket 0.5–0.618", text_size=size.small, text_color=color.new(color.yellow, 0))

// ── Pivots: daily ──
hline(showPivots ? 4418.13 : na, "Daily R3", color=color.new(color.red, 60),   linestyle=hline.style_dotted)
hline(showPivots ? 4370.93 : na, "Daily R2", color=color.new(color.red, 40))
hline(showPivots ? 4277.78 : na, "Daily R1", color=color.new(color.red, 20))
hline(showPivots ? 4230.58 : na, "Daily P",  color=color.new(color.white, 30))
hline(showPivots ? 4137.43 : na, "Daily S1", color=color.new(color.green, 20))
hline(showPivots ? 4090.23 : na, "Daily S2", color=color.new(color.green, 40))
hline(showPivots ? 3997.08 : na, "Daily S3", color=color.new(color.green, 60), linestyle=hline.style_dotted)

// ── Pivots: weekly (key levels) ──
hline(showPivots ? 4369.13 : na, "Weekly R1", color=color.new(color.fuchsia, 40), linestyle=hline.style_dashed)
hline(showPivots ? 4197.80 : na, "Weekly P",  color=color.new(color.fuchsia, 20), linestyle=hline.style_dashed)
hline(showPivots ? 4041.03 : na, "Weekly S1", color=color.new(color.fuchsia, 40), linestyle=hline.style_dashed)

// ── Supply / Demand Zones ──
var box supplyTop = na
var box supplyMid = na
var box demandTop = na
var box demandDeep = na
if showZones and barstate.islast
    box.delete(supplyTop)
    box.delete(supplyMid)
    box.delete(demandTop)
    box.delete(demandDeep)
    supplyTop  := box.new(bar_index - 120, 4373.95, bar_index + 40, 4354.58, bgcolor=color.new(color.red, 85), border_color=color.new(color.red, 60), text="Supply 4,355–4,374 (session hi / wk hi)", text_size=size.small, text_color=color.new(color.red, 0))
    supplyMid  := box.new(bar_index - 120, 4277.78, bar_index + 40, 4230.58, bgcolor=color.new(color.red, 88), border_color=color.new(color.red, 70), text="Supply 4,230–4,278 (D-pivot / D-R1)",    text_size=size.small, text_color=color.new(color.red, 20))
    demandTop  := box.new(bar_index - 120, 4150.00, bar_index + 40, 4090.23, bgcolor=color.new(color.green, 85), border_color=color.new(color.green, 60), text="Demand 4,090–4,150 (0.618–0.786 fib / S2)", text_size=size.small, text_color=color.new(color.green, 0))
    demandDeep := box.new(bar_index - 120, 4041.03, bar_index + 40, 3997.08, bgcolor=color.new(color.green, 88), border_color=color.new(color.green, 70), text="Deep Demand 3,997–4,041 (W-S1 / D-S3)",    text_size=size.small, text_color=color.new(color.green, 20))

// ── Trade Ideas ──
var box   sellEntry = na
var line  sellInval = na
var line  sellTgt   = na
var label sellLbl   = na
var box   buyEntry  = na
var line  buyInval  = na
var line  buyTgt    = na
var label buyLbl    = na
if showTrades and barstate.islast
    box.delete(sellEntry)
    line.delete(sellInval)
    line.delete(sellTgt)
    label.delete(sellLbl)
    box.delete(buyEntry)
    line.delete(buyInval)
    line.delete(buyTgt)
    label.delete(buyLbl)
    sellEntry := box.new(bar_index + 5, 4277.78, bar_index + 50, 4229.25, bgcolor=color.new(color.red, 70), border_color=color.red, text="SELL entry 4,229–4,278", text_size=size.small, text_color=color.white)
    sellInval := line.new(bar_index + 5, 4302.94, bar_index + 50, 4302.94, color=color.red, style=line.style_dashed, width=2)
    sellTgt   := line.new(bar_index + 5, 4090.23, bar_index + 50, 4090.23, color=color.red, style=line.style_solid,  width=2)
    sellLbl   := label.new(bar_index + 50, 4253.50, "SELL bounce-fade · 60% conv\ninval 4,303 · tgt 4,090", color=color.new(color.red, 30), textcolor=color.white, style=label.style_label_left, size=size.small)
    buyEntry  := box.new(bar_index + 5, 4150.00, bar_index + 50, 4096.70, bgcolor=color.new(color.green, 70), border_color=color.green, text="BUY entry 4,097–4,150", text_size=size.small, text_color=color.white)
    buyInval  := line.new(bar_index + 5, 4041.03, bar_index + 50, 4041.03, color=color.green, style=line.style_dashed, width=2)
    buyTgt    := line.new(bar_index + 5, 4229.25, bar_index + 50, 4229.25, color=color.green, style=line.style_solid,  width=2)
    buyLbl    := label.new(bar_index + 50, 4123.00, "BUY golden-pocket scalp · 40% conv\ninval 4,041 · tgt 4,229", color=color.new(color.green, 30), textcolor=color.white, style=label.style_label_left, size=size.small)

// ── Net Bias Banner ──
var table biasBanner = table.new(position.top_right, 2, 5, border_width=1)
if barstate.islast
    table.cell(biasBanner, 0, 0, "Gold Desk · 2026-06-19", bgcolor=color.new(color.black, 20), text_color=color.white,  text_size=size.small)
    table.cell(biasBanner, 1, 0, "Bias: SELL",             bgcolor=color.new(color.red, 30),   text_color=color.white,  text_size=size.small)
    table.cell(biasBanner, 0, 1, "10y Real (TIPS)",        bgcolor=color.new(color.black, 50), text_color=color.silver, text_size=size.tiny)
    table.cell(biasBanner, 1, 1, "2.21% (-2bp)",           bgcolor=color.new(color.black, 50), text_color=color.white,  text_size=size.tiny)
    table.cell(biasBanner, 0, 2, "DXY",                    bgcolor=color.new(color.black, 50), text_color=color.silver, text_size=size.tiny)
    table.cell(biasBanner, 1, 2, "100.95 (+0.98%)",        bgcolor=color.new(color.black, 50), text_color=color.white,  text_size=size.tiny)
    table.cell(biasBanner, 0, 3, "Fed Jul: hold / hike",   bgcolor=color.new(color.black, 50), text_color=color.silver, text_size=size.tiny)
    table.cell(biasBanner, 1, 3, "60% / 40%",              bgcolor=color.new(color.black, 50), text_color=color.white,  text_size=size.tiny)
    table.cell(biasBanner, 0, 4, "Aggregate (invest.com)", bgcolor=color.new(color.black, 50), text_color=color.silver, text_size=size.tiny)
    table.cell(biasBanner, 1, 4, "Strong Sell",            bgcolor=color.new(color.black, 50), text_color=color.white,  text_size=size.tiny)