Gold pins the weekly golden pocket as real yields grind higher

Gold trades $4,062 after a $150 bounce off session lows, but it's stopping exactly inside the weekly 50–61.8% retracement — the golden pocket — where sellers historically show up. Real yields ticked +5 bp to 2.25% and fed-funds futures now price a 31% July hike probability with a 0% cut, a hawkish shift that argues against chasing this bounce. The daily chart is still broken (price 391 handles below the 200-EMA), the 4H is trying to bottom, and the two frames disagree. We're leaning to fade strength into the 4,110–4,125 confluence, with a smaller counter-trade for a hold of the pivot.

The session

Spot PAXG prints 4,062.07, up 0.98% intraday and roughly flat on the week (-0.34%) but down 3.63% on the month. The session traced a 154-point range (3,956.89 – 4,110.89) — that's the swing we're anchoring today's fib work to. The bounce is the story: after tagging the 3,957 level, buyers reclaimed the daily pivot at 4,033.56 and pushed through the weekly pivot at 4,086.08 before losing steam right at the weekly 50% retracement (4,087.93).

The proximate catalyst is a soft DXY (-0.38% to 101.10, RSI 28.4 on the 1H — deeply oversold) plus dovish tape from Eurozone inflation prints: the Financial Times' "Eurozone inflation falls to 2.8% in June" story hit alongside Bloomberg's "ECB Views Splinter on Next Rate Move as Inflation Sinks With Oil." A softer euro-side inflation picture pressures the dollar on the crosses even as US rates repriced higher. Gold caught the dollar bid, not a rates bid — which is exactly the kind of bounce we've been trained to fade.

Multi-timeframe read

• 15m — RSI 51.7, MACD hist negative and rolling (-0.60 ↓). Price is 30¢ above the 20-EMA. That is the definition of "stalled." Intraday momentum is fading right here.
• 1h — RSI 57.5, MACD hist positive but rolling over (0.26 ↓). Price sits $12 above the 20-EMA and $26 above the 50-EMA. Constructive but tiring.
• 4h — RSI 61.4, MACD hist strongly positive and rising (+5.96 ↑). Price $24 above the 20-EMA. This is the frame that's most bullish and is what the dip-buyer is trading.
• 1d — RSI 39.5, MACD hist positive from a low base. Price is $63 below the 20-EMA, $224 below the 50-EMA, and $391 below the 200-EMA. The trend on the daily is unambiguously broken and price is retracing UP into a shattered structure.

The frames disagree, and that disagreement IS the trade. The 4H says "bottoming rally," the daily says "bear-market bounce into supply." Historically the higher timeframe wins once the fuel runs out — and the fuel here is fading DXY, which is already deeply oversold on the 1H.

Investing.com's automated aggregate reads Strong Sell on the daily. That squares with my daily view but disagrees with my near-term (their MA table shows 10 buys / 2 sells and their MACD read is buy). I'll note the divergence and side with the higher timeframe.

Macro frame

Lead with the driver: the 10-year real yield sits at 2.25%, +5 bp on the day. That is the primary headwind for gold. When real yields rise, the carry cost of holding a non-yielding asset increases, and gold structurally struggles. Breakevens actually eased 1 bp to 2.23% — so the entire nominal move (+4 bp to 4.48%) came from the real leg. That's the worst combination for gold: less inflation compensation, more real-yield pressure.

Fed-funds futures for the July 29 FOMC now price 0% cut / 69% hold / 31% hike. That is a materially hawkish path. A hike isn't the base case, but a 31% tail is enough to keep TIPS bid and the front end of the curve firm — and that is exactly what the +5 bp real-yield move reflects. Kitco flagged the setup earlier this week; the news wire on the Fed side is dominated by Bloomberg's "Fed Chair Signals Renewed Inflation Fight at ECB Panel" and Yahoo's "Fed's Warsh reiterates 2% inflation goal, independence at ECB forum" — both hawkish in tone, both consistent with the odds shift.

DXY at 101.10 is weaker on the day (-0.38%) but up 1.89% on the month, and the daily setup is still constructive (RSI 62.4, above the 20/50/200 EMAs). The 30-day DXY↔XAU return correlation is -0.45, so a DXY roll would help gold — but with DXY 1H RSI at 28.4, the near-term dollar downside is stretched. A DXY bounce would likely coincide with any gold fade.

Cross-asset context: VIX 16.79 — no risk-off bid to help gold. GVZ 27.12 — gold's own implied vol is elevated versus recent norms, so the market is pricing the possibility of a fast move; option risk is not cheap. Gold/silver ratio 67.7 with silver at $59.99 — silver's outperformance suggests the precious-metals complex still has industrial-cycle support, but that's a silver story more than a gold one. WTI down modestly ($68.16) doesn't move the inflation narrative. Bitcoin at $60,044 is quiet — no "digital-gold" bid pulling money out of the metal.

ECB coloring is decisively dovish (Reuters: "Euro zone inflation falls more than expected, adding to ECB case for patience"; FT: "June inflation in the Eurozone is good news for the ECB"). That's EUR-negative on the margin, which should support DXY — again, gold-negative if it plays through.

Two scenarios

Convictions below are honest qualitative reads, not back-tested probabilities.

Sell setup

• Trigger: rejection between $4,110 (daily R1) and $4,125 (daily EMA20) — sell on a lower high forming in that band, or on a clean rejection wick from $4,110.22 – $4,125.18.
• Invalidation: two 4H closes above $4,187.56 (daily R2). That would break the daily downtrend structure.
• Target: $4,033.56 first (daily pivot), then $3,956.22 (daily S1) / $3,955.30 (weekly S1) — a confluence floor.
• Conviction: 55%
• Rationale: Real yields up, Fed odds hawkish, daily trend broken, price bouncing into stacked resistance (weekly 50% retracement at $4,087.93 already tagged; daily EMA20 dead ahead). Investing.com's aggregate reads Strong Sell. DXY is oversold and due a bounce that would remove the tailwind.

Buy setup

• Trigger: hold and reclaim of the weekly 61.8% retracement at $4,057.50 with a 1H close back above the weekly pivot ($4,086.08). This is a "the golden pocket did its job" trade.
• Invalidation: 1H close below $4,033.56 (daily pivot) — golden pocket broken.
• Target: $4,110.22 (daily R1) → stretch to $4,156 (weekly 23.6% retracement).
• Conviction: 35%
• Rationale: 4H MACD histogram is expanding positively, daily RSI at 39.5 is near oversold, COMEX front-month printed +2.44% in 24h (paper leading spot by 50 bp — a bullish tell), and DXY 1H RSI 28.4 is stretched. This is a counter-trend scalp only — do not carry it through into R2.

Levels worth marking

• Resistance stack: 4,086.08 (weekly P — just touched), 4,110.22 (daily R1), 4,125.18 (daily EMA20 — key), 4,156.01 (weekly 23.6% fib), 4,187.56 (daily R2 — trend-flip level), 4,213.16 (weekly R1).
• Support stack: 4,057.50 (weekly 61.8% fib), 4,033.56 (daily P), 4,016.71 (session 61.8%), 3,956.22 (daily S1) / 3,955.30 (weekly S1 — confluence), 3,879.56 (daily S2), 3,828.22 (weekly S2).
• Golden pocket, weekly swing (4,216.86 → 3,959.00): $4,057.50 – $4,087.93. Price is inside it right now — this is where the trade sets up.

Calendar / catalysts

From the pre-fetched ForexFactory block, the sequenced events into today's session:

• Tue Jun 30 · USD JOLTS Job Openings: actual 7.59M vs 7.28M forecast — hotter, marginally hawkish for the Fed path.
• Tue Jun 30 · CAD GDP m/m: actual +0.5% vs +0.4% forecast — CAD-positive, not directly relevant to gold.
• Tue Jun 30 · USD CB Consumer Confidence: 91.2 vs 94.4 forecast — softer, slightly gold-supportive but overshadowed by JOLTS.
• Mon Jun 29 · ECB Lagarde speaks / Tue Jun 30 · German prelim CPI -0.3% — the dovish ECB tape driving the EUR/DXY story.

Forward events in the pre-fetched block stop here — I have no NFP entry in this brief. Investing.com's headline flags "Gold prices rise further from 8-mth lows; nonfarm payrolls in focus," so payrolls are clearly the next macro pivot, but I won't quote a date/time I wasn't given. Read the calendar tab yourself before sizing into month-start payrolls week.

Sources cited

• Price/technical snapshot: pre-fetched OHLC + RSI/MACD/EMA table
• US Treasury real yields (TIPS): 10y at 2.25% (07/01/2026)
• CFTC COT (2026-06-23): managed money net +181,339, commercials net -205,404
• Fed-funds futures implied odds for Jul 29 FOMC
• Bloomberg Markets: "ECB Views Splinter…", "Stournaras Sees Smaller Likelihood of Further Rate Hike", "Kaasik Says One More Rate Hike Is Reasonable Expectation"
• Financial Times: "Eurozone inflation falls to 2.8% in June"
• Reuters: "Euro zone inflation falls more than expected"
• Yahoo Finance: "Fed's Warsh reiterates 2% inflation goal…"
• Investing.com: headline scan + automated daily aggregate (Strong Sell)
• ForexFactory economic calendar (pre-fetched)

Desk summary & bias

Gold is sitting inside the weekly golden pocket ($4,057.50 – $4,087.93) after a session bounce driven by a soft DXY, not a friendly rates picture. The primary driver — the 10y real yield — actually moved AGAINST gold today (+5 bp to 2.25%), while fed-funds futures priced out any cut and put a 31% probability on a July hike. The daily trend is still broken with price nearly $400 below the 200-EMA, and investing.com's aggregate agrees with a Strong Sell. The 4H is the only frame arguing for continuation. Next thing to watch: how price behaves at $4,110–4,125 (daily R1 + daily EMA20) and, on the downside, whether $4,033.56 (daily pivot) holds — those two levels frame the day.

#	Bias	Setup	Trigger	Entry zone	Invalidation	Target	Conviction	Why
1	SELL	Bounce-fade at confluence	Rejection at daily R1/EMA20 band	4,110.22 – 4,125.18	4,187.56	4,033.56 → 3,956.22	55%	Real yields +5 bp, Fed odds hawkish, daily trend broken, investing.com Strong Sell
2	BUY	Golden-pocket reclaim	1H close back above weekly pivot 4,086.08	4,057.50 – 4,086.08	4,033.56	4,110.22 → 4,156.01	35%	4H MACD rising, daily RSI 39.5, COMEX +2.44% leads spot, DXY 1H oversold
3	SELL	Trend-continuation swing	4H close below daily pivot 4,033.56	4,016.71 – 4,033.56	4,110.22	3,879.56 → 3,828.22	45%	If golden pocket fails, next stop is confluence at weekly S1 ~3,955, then daily S2

Net desk bias: SELL. Real yields moved against gold today and the market is pricing a 31% July HIKE with zero cut probability — that is not a monetary regime in which you chase gold bounces. DXY weakness is the only reason we're up here, and 1H DXY RSI at 28.4 says that trade is stretched. The daily technicals (below all three EMAs, broken structure, investing.com Strong Sell) reinforce the macro. If the 4H bottoming pattern completes and pulls price back through $4,086, we'll size down the fade and let idea #2 play — but that's the counter-trade, not the base case.

(not financial advice)

//@version=5
indicator("Gold Desk 2026-07-02 — bias SELL", overlay=true, max_lines_count=300, max_labels_count=300, max_boxes_count=100)

// ── Colours ──
cSup = color.new(color.green, 75)
cRes = color.new(color.red, 75)
cGP  = color.new(color.yellow, 70)
cBuy = color.new(color.green, 60)
cSel = color.new(color.red, 60)
cInv = color.new(color.orange, 0)
cTgt = color.new(color.aqua, 0)

// ── EMAs (trend spine) ──
ema20  = ta.ema(close, 20)
ema50  = ta.ema(close, 50)
ema200 = ta.ema(close, 200)
plot(ema20,  "EMA20",  color=color.new(color.yellow, 0), linewidth=1)
plot(ema50,  "EMA50",  color=color.new(color.orange, 0), linewidth=1)
plot(ema200, "EMA200", color=color.new(color.red, 0),    linewidth=2)

// ── Pivots (daily + weekly, only the ones we care about) ──
hline(4110.22, "Daily R1", color=color.new(color.red,   40), linestyle=hline.style_dashed)
hline(4187.56, "Daily R2", color=color.new(color.red,   20), linestyle=hline.style_dashed)
hline(4033.56, "Daily P",  color=color.new(color.gray,  30), linestyle=hline.style_solid)
hline(3956.22, "Daily S1", color=color.new(color.green, 40), linestyle=hline.style_dashed)
hline(3879.56, "Daily S2", color=color.new(color.green, 20), linestyle=hline.style_dashed)
hline(4086.08, "Weekly P", color=color.new(color.white, 30), linestyle=hline.style_solid)
hline(4213.16, "Weekly R1",color=color.new(color.red,   10), linestyle=hline.style_dotted)
hline(3955.30, "Weekly S1",color=color.new(color.green, 10), linestyle=hline.style_dotted)

// ── Fibonacci: anchored to weekly swing 4216.86 (high) → 3959.00 (low) ──
fibHi   = 4216.86
fibLo   = 3959.00
fibR    = fibHi - fibLo
fib236  = fibHi - 0.236 * fibR
fib382  = fibHi - 0.382 * fibR
fib500  = fibHi - 0.500 * fibR
fib618  = fibHi - 0.618 * fibR
fib786  = fibHi - 0.786 * fibR
hline(fib236, "Fib 0.236", color=color.new(color.purple, 30), linestyle=hline.style_dotted)
hline(fib382, "Fib 0.382", color=color.new(color.purple, 30), linestyle=hline.style_dotted)
hline(fib500, "Fib 0.500", color=color.new(color.purple, 20), linestyle=hline.style_dotted)
hline(fib618, "Fib 0.618", color=color.new(color.purple, 20), linestyle=hline.style_dotted)
hline(fib786, "Fib 0.786", color=color.new(color.purple, 30), linestyle=hline.style_dotted)

// ── Golden pocket shading (0.5 – 0.618) ──
var box gpBox = na
if bar_index % 50 == 0
    box.delete(gpBox)
    gpBox := box.new(bar_index - 200, fib500, bar_index + 50, fib618, bgcolor=cGP, border_color=color.new(color.yellow, 40))

// ── Supply / demand zones (real S/R the note flags) ──
var box demand1 = na
var box demand2 = na
var box supply1 = na
var box supply2 = na
if bar_index % 50 == 0
    box.delete(demand1)
    box.delete(demand2)
    box.delete(supply1)
    box.delete(supply2)
    demand1 := box.new(bar_index - 200, 3956.22, bar_index + 50, 3955.30, bgcolor=cSup, border_color=color.new(color.green, 50))
    demand2 := box.new(bar_index - 200, 3879.56, bar_index + 50, 3828.22, bgcolor=cSup, border_color=color.new(color.green, 50))
    supply1 := box.new(bar_index - 200, 4110.22, bar_index + 50, 4125.18, bgcolor=cRes, border_color=color.new(color.red, 50))
    supply2 := box.new(bar_index - 200, 4187.56, bar_index + 50, 4213.16, bgcolor=cRes, border_color=color.new(color.red, 50))

// ── Trade idea #1: SELL bounce-fade (55%) ──
var box  sell1Entry = na
var line sell1Inv   = na
var line sell1Tgt   = na
if bar_index % 50 == 0
    box.delete(sell1Entry)
    line.delete(sell1Inv)
    line.delete(sell1Tgt)
    sell1Entry := box.new(bar_index - 100, 4125.18, bar_index + 50, 4110.22, bgcolor=cSel, border_color=color.red)
    sell1Inv   := line.new(bar_index - 100, 4187.56, bar_index + 50, 4187.56, color=cInv, style=line.style_dashed, width=2)
    sell1Tgt   := line.new(bar_index - 100, 3956.22, bar_index + 50, 3956.22, color=cTgt, style=line.style_solid, width=2)
    label.new(bar_index + 50, 4117.70, "SELL #1 fade  55%", color=color.new(color.red, 0), textcolor=color.white, style=label.style_label_left, size=size.small)
    label.new(bar_index + 50, 4187.56, "INV 4,187.56", color=cInv, textcolor=color.white, style=label.style_label_left, size=size.tiny)
    label.new(bar_index + 50, 3956.22, "TGT 3,956.22", color=cTgt, textcolor=color.black, style=label.style_label_left, size=size.tiny)

// ── Trade idea #2: BUY golden-pocket reclaim (35%) ──
var box  buy1Entry = na
var line buy1Inv   = na
var line buy1Tgt   = na
if bar_index % 50 == 0
    box.delete(buy1Entry)
    line.delete(buy1Inv)
    line.delete(buy1Tgt)
    buy1Entry := box.new(bar_index - 100, 4086.08, bar_index + 50, 4057.50, bgcolor=cBuy, border_color=color.green)
    buy1Inv   := line.new(bar_index - 100, 4033.56, bar_index + 50, 4033.56, color=cInv, style=line.style_dashed, width=2)
    buy1Tgt   := line.new(bar_index - 100, 4110.22, bar_index + 50, 4110.22, color=cTgt, style=line.style_solid, width=2)
    label.new(bar_index + 50, 4071.79, "BUY  #2 reclaim  35%", color=color.new(color.green, 0), textcolor=color.white, style=label.style_label_left, size=size.small)
    label.new(bar_index + 50, 4033.56, "INV 4,033.56", color=cInv, textcolor=color.white, style=label.style_label_left, size=size.tiny)

// ── Trade idea #3: SELL trend-continuation swing (45%) ──
var box  sell2Entry = na
var line sell2Inv   = na
var line sell2Tgt   = na
if bar_index % 50 == 0
    box.delete(sell2Entry)
    line.delete(sell2Inv)
    line.delete(sell2Tgt)
    sell2Entry := box.new(bar_index - 100, 4033.56, bar_index + 50, 4016.71, bgcolor=cSel, border_color=color.red)
    sell2Inv   := line.new(bar_index - 100, 4110.22, bar_index + 50, 4110.22, color=cInv, style=line.style_dashed, width=2)
    sell2Tgt   := line.new(bar_index - 100, 3828.22, bar_index + 50, 3828.22, color=cTgt, style=line.style_solid, width=2)
    label.new(bar_index + 50, 4025.13, "SELL #3 swing  45%", color=color.new(color.red, 0), textcolor=color.white, style=label.style_label_left, size=size.small)
    label.new(bar_index + 50, 3828.22, "TGT 3,828.22", color=cTgt, textcolor=color.black, style=label.style_label_left, size=size.tiny)

// ── Bias banner (top-right table) ──
var table bias = table.new(position.top_right, 2, 5, border_width=1)
if barstate.islast
    table.cell(bias, 0, 0, "NET DESK BIAS", bgcolor=color.new(color.red, 20), text_color=color.white, text_size=size.small)
    table.cell(bias, 1, 0, "SELL",          bgcolor=color.new(color.red, 20), text_color=color.white, text_size=size.small)
    table.cell(bias, 0, 1, "10y real yield", text_color=color.white, text_size=size.tiny)
    table.cell(bias, 1, 1, "2.25% (+5bp)",   text_color=color.white, text_size=size.tiny)
    table.cell(bias, 0, 2, "FOMC Jul 29",    text_color=color.white, text_size=size.tiny)
    table.cell(bias, 1, 2, "hold 69 / hike 31", text_color=color.white, text_size=size.tiny)
    table.cell(bias, 0, 3, "DXY",            text_color=color.white, text_size=size.tiny)
    table.cell(bias, 1, 3, "101.10 (-0.38%)", text_color=color.white, text_size=size.tiny)
    table.cell(bias, 0, 4, "Weekly GP",      text_color=color.white, text_size=size.tiny)
    table.cell(bias, 1, 4, "4057.50 - 4087.93", text_color=color.white, text_size=size.tiny)

{"bias": "SELL",
 "ideas": [
   {"bias": "SELL", "label": "Bounce-fade at confluence", "entry_low": 4110.22, "entry_high": 4125.18,
    "invalidation": 4187.56, "target": 3956.22, "conviction": 55},
   {"bias": "BUY", "label": "Golden-pocket reclaim", "entry_low": 4057.50, "entry_high": 4086.08,
    "invalidation": 4033.56, "target": 4110.22, "conviction": 35},
   {"bias": "SELL", "label": "Trend-continuation swing", "entry_low": 4016.71, "entry_high": 4033.56,
    "invalidation": 4110.22, "target": 3828.22, "conviction": 45}
 ]}

TradingView chart script

Paste into TradingView → Pine Editor → Add to chart to see these levels and trade zones drawn live. (Also attached to the email edition as a .pine file.)

//@version=5
indicator("Gold Desk 2026-07-02 — bias SELL", overlay=true, max_lines_count=300, max_labels_count=300, max_boxes_count=100)

// ── Colours ──
cSup = color.new(color.green, 75)
cRes = color.new(color.red, 75)
cGP  = color.new(color.yellow, 70)
cBuy = color.new(color.green, 60)
cSel = color.new(color.red, 60)
cInv = color.new(color.orange, 0)
cTgt = color.new(color.aqua, 0)

// ── EMAs (trend spine) ──
ema20  = ta.ema(close, 20)
ema50  = ta.ema(close, 50)
ema200 = ta.ema(close, 200)
plot(ema20,  "EMA20",  color=color.new(color.yellow, 0), linewidth=1)
plot(ema50,  "EMA50",  color=color.new(color.orange, 0), linewidth=1)
plot(ema200, "EMA200", color=color.new(color.red, 0),    linewidth=2)

// ── Pivots (daily + weekly, only the ones we care about) ──
hline(4110.22, "Daily R1", color=color.new(color.red,   40), linestyle=hline.style_dashed)
hline(4187.56, "Daily R2", color=color.new(color.red,   20), linestyle=hline.style_dashed)
hline(4033.56, "Daily P",  color=color.new(color.gray,  30), linestyle=hline.style_solid)
hline(3956.22, "Daily S1", color=color.new(color.green, 40), linestyle=hline.style_dashed)
hline(3879.56, "Daily S2", color=color.new(color.green, 20), linestyle=hline.style_dashed)
hline(4086.08, "Weekly P", color=color.new(color.white, 30), linestyle=hline.style_solid)
hline(4213.16, "Weekly R1",color=color.new(color.red,   10), linestyle=hline.style_dotted)
hline(3955.30, "Weekly S1",color=color.new(color.green, 10), linestyle=hline.style_dotted)

// ── Fibonacci: anchored to weekly swing 4216.86 (high) → 3959.00 (low) ──
fibHi   = 4216.86
fibLo   = 3959.00
fibR    = fibHi - fibLo
fib236  = fibHi - 0.236 * fibR
fib382  = fibHi - 0.382 * fibR
fib500  = fibHi - 0.500 * fibR
fib618  = fibHi - 0.618 * fibR
fib786  = fibHi - 0.786 * fibR
hline(fib236, "Fib 0.236", color=color.new(color.purple, 30), linestyle=hline.style_dotted)
hline(fib382, "Fib 0.382", color=color.new(color.purple, 30), linestyle=hline.style_dotted)
hline(fib500, "Fib 0.500", color=color.new(color.purple, 20), linestyle=hline.style_dotted)
hline(fib618, "Fib 0.618", color=color.new(color.purple, 20), linestyle=hline.style_dotted)
hline(fib786, "Fib 0.786", color=color.new(color.purple, 30), linestyle=hline.style_dotted)

// ── Golden pocket shading (0.5 – 0.618) ──
var box gpBox = na
if bar_index % 50 == 0
    box.delete(gpBox)
    gpBox := box.new(bar_index - 200, fib500, bar_index + 50, fib618, bgcolor=cGP, border_color=color.new(color.yellow, 40))

// ── Supply / demand zones (real S/R the note flags) ──
var box demand1 = na
var box demand2 = na
var box supply1 = na
var box supply2 = na
if bar_index % 50 == 0
    box.delete(demand1)
    box.delete(demand2)
    box.delete(supply1)
    box.delete(supply2)
    demand1 := box.new(bar_index - 200, 3956.22, bar_index + 50, 3955.30, bgcolor=cSup, border_color=color.new(color.green, 50))
    demand2 := box.new(bar_index - 200, 3879.56, bar_index + 50, 3828.22, bgcolor=cSup, border_color=color.new(color.green, 50))
    supply1 := box.new(bar_index - 200, 4110.22, bar_index + 50, 4125.18, bgcolor=cRes, border_color=color.new(color.red, 50))
    supply2 := box.new(bar_index - 200, 4187.56, bar_index + 50, 4213.16, bgcolor=cRes, border_color=color.new(color.red, 50))

// ── Trade idea #1: SELL bounce-fade (55%) ──
var box  sell1Entry = na
var line sell1Inv   = na
var line sell1Tgt   = na
if bar_index % 50 == 0
    box.delete(sell1Entry)
    line.delete(sell1Inv)
    line.delete(sell1Tgt)
    sell1Entry := box.new(bar_index - 100, 4125.18, bar_index + 50, 4110.22, bgcolor=cSel, border_color=color.red)
    sell1Inv   := line.new(bar_index - 100, 4187.56, bar_index + 50, 4187.56, color=cInv, style=line.style_dashed, width=2)
    sell1Tgt   := line.new(bar_index - 100, 3956.22, bar_index + 50, 3956.22, color=cTgt, style=line.style_solid, width=2)
    label.new(bar_index + 50, 4117.70, "SELL #1 fade  55%", color=color.new(color.red, 0), textcolor=color.white, style=label.style_label_left, size=size.small)
    label.new(bar_index + 50, 4187.56, "INV 4,187.56", color=cInv, textcolor=color.white, style=label.style_label_left, size=size.tiny)
    label.new(bar_index + 50, 3956.22, "TGT 3,956.22", color=cTgt, textcolor=color.black, style=label.style_label_left, size=size.tiny)

// ── Trade idea #2: BUY golden-pocket reclaim (35%) ──
var box  buy1Entry = na
var line buy1Inv   = na
var line buy1Tgt   = na
if bar_index % 50 == 0
    box.delete(buy1Entry)
    line.delete(buy1Inv)
    line.delete(buy1Tgt)
    buy1Entry := box.new(bar_index - 100, 4086.08, bar_index + 50, 4057.50, bgcolor=cBuy, border_color=color.green)
    buy1Inv   := line.new(bar_index - 100, 4033.56, bar_index + 50, 4033.56, color=cInv, style=line.style_dashed, width=2)
    buy1Tgt   := line.new(bar_index - 100, 4110.22, bar_index + 50, 4110.22, color=cTgt, style=line.style_solid, width=2)
    label.new(bar_index + 50, 4071.79, "BUY  #2 reclaim  35%", color=color.new(color.green, 0), textcolor=color.white, style=label.style_label_left, size=size.small)
    label.new(bar_index + 50, 4033.56, "INV 4,033.56", color=cInv, textcolor=color.white, style=label.style_label_left, size=size.tiny)

// ── Trade idea #3: SELL trend-continuation swing (45%) ──
var box  sell2Entry = na
var line sell2Inv   = na
var line sell2Tgt   = na
if bar_index % 50 == 0
    box.delete(sell2Entry)
    line.delete(sell2Inv)
    line.delete(sell2Tgt)
    sell2Entry := box.new(bar_index - 100, 4033.56, bar_index + 50, 4016.71, bgcolor=cSel, border_color=color.red)
    sell2Inv   := line.new(bar_index - 100, 4110.22, bar_index + 50, 4110.22, color=cInv, style=line.style_dashed, width=2)
    sell2Tgt   := line.new(bar_index - 100, 3828.22, bar_index + 50, 3828.22, color=cTgt, style=line.style_solid, width=2)
    label.new(bar_index + 50, 4025.13, "SELL #3 swing  45%", color=color.new(color.red, 0), textcolor=color.white, style=label.style_label_left, size=size.small)
    label.new(bar_index + 50, 3828.22, "TGT 3,828.22", color=cTgt, textcolor=color.black, style=label.style_label_left, size=size.tiny)

// ── Bias banner (top-right table) ──
var table bias = table.new(position.top_right, 2, 5, border_width=1)
if barstate.islast
    table.cell(bias, 0, 0, "NET DESK BIAS", bgcolor=color.new(color.red, 20), text_color=color.white, text_size=size.small)
    table.cell(bias, 1, 0, "SELL",          bgcolor=color.new(color.red, 20), text_color=color.white, text_size=size.small)
    table.cell(bias, 0, 1, "10y real yield", text_color=color.white, text_size=size.tiny)
    table.cell(bias, 1, 1, "2.25% (+5bp)",   text_color=color.white, text_size=size.tiny)
    table.cell(bias, 0, 2, "FOMC Jul 29",    text_color=color.white, text_size=size.tiny)
    table.cell(bias, 1, 2, "hold 69 / hike 31", text_color=color.white, text_size=size.tiny)
    table.cell(bias, 0, 3, "DXY",            text_color=color.white, text_size=size.tiny)
    table.cell(bias, 1, 3, "101.10 (-0.38%)", text_color=color.white, text_size=size.tiny)
    table.cell(bias, 0, 4, "Weekly GP",      text_color=color.white, text_size=size.tiny)
    table.cell(bias, 1, 4, "4057.50 - 4087.93", text_color=color.white, text_size=size.tiny)