Real Yields Press, Geopolitical Premium Bleeds — Gold Tests Weekly S1

Gold is down nearly 4% on the session as the Iran–Israel ceasefire signal unwinds the geopolitical bid into a wall of 2.21% real yields and a DXY pushing back above 99.90. Every EMA on every timeframe sits above price, investing.com's daily aggregate has flipped to Strong Sell, but the daily MACD histogram is curling up from a deeply negative print while the 4h RSI prints 34.7 — the tape is stretched, not reversed. Managed money is still carrying a +176k net long into this break, which is the real fuel for a deeper flush if 4,257 fails. The desk leans short into rallies, but the asymmetry tightens fast as price approaches the weekly S1 / daily S2 confluence around 4,257–4,264.

The session

Gold prints 4,349.60 at the snapshot, mid-session range 4,293.00 to 4,571.30. That's a 278-point swing intraday — the kind of range that only shows up when a thematic bid gets pulled in a hurry. The catalyst is on the tape: per the investing.com newsfeed, "Gold steady near 11-wk low as Iran, Israel halt attacks; US CPI awaited" and "Gold muted as rate jitters offset sentiment boost from Iran, Israel ending strikes". The risk-premium leg of the rally — the bid that drove price toward 4,571 earlier in the session — is being walked out the door, and there is nothing on the macro side to catch it. VIX is down 4.0% to 18.17, which tells you equity-vol traders are buying the de-escalation story too. The bid that remains is structural — central-bank demand, COMEX shorts covering against a long-loaded spec book — and that bid is positioned lower.

Price now sits in the daily P → R1 zone (4,320.47 / 4,356.33), but every short-dated EMA is overhead and the 15m / 1h MACD histograms are pointing down. The afternoon's character will be set by whether 4,320 holds as the new ceiling or as the new pivot.

Multi-timeframe read

The timeframes are aligned to the downside, but with internal tension worth respecting.

• 15m: RSI 42.3, MACD histogram -1.57 and falling, price 7 points below EMA20 and 30 below EMA200. Pure tactical sell flow.
• 1h: RSI 45.2, EMA20/50 cluster at 4,355.73 / 4,379.18 sits directly above price and lines up with daily R1 at 4,356.33 — a textbook supply shelf.
• 4h: RSI 34.7 — approaching oversold but not yet there. EMA20 at 4,397.82, a full 48 points overhead. Trend channel intact down.
• 1d: RSI 35.5, price 244 points below the 50-day, 140 below the 20-day. But the daily MACD histogram print is -13.94 and rising — the rate of selling is decelerating even as price extends. That's the only crack in an otherwise unanimous bearish read.

Where they agree: every EMA on every TF is above spot. Where they diverge: the higher TFs (4h/1d) are showing exhaustion signals (low RSI, MACD curl) that the lower TFs aren't. This is the classic shape of a tape where the next big move is a counter-trend bounce inside an established downtrend — sell the bounce, but don't chase the break.

investing.com's aggregate calls it Strong Sell (12 sell / 0 buy across MA5–MA200) with their RSI flagged Neutral. That's consistent with my read of the moving-average stack, and the divergence — their MA-driven Strong Sell vs. my 4h/1d RSI/MACD exhaustion — is exactly the kind of disagreement worth pricing into the trade plan. The MA aggregate is a trend confirmer; the RSI/MACD exhaustion is a timing input. Both can be right.

Macro frame

The primary driver, in order:

Real yield: 2.21% on the 10y TIPS, +2 bp d/d. That's the headwind line and the single most important number in this brief. A real yield in the low 2s makes gold's zero-coupon proposition expensive in opportunity-cost terms, and the direction is wrong for bulls. Breakeven inflation came off 1 bp to 2.35%, so the entire rise in nominal (4.56%, +1 bp) is being absorbed by the real leg — the bond market is repricing growth/policy, not inflation. Gold doesn't want that mix.

Fed odds back it up. Fed-funds futures price a 97% hold at the June 17 FOMC, with 96.7% of the distribution sitting in the 3.50–3.75 target range. There is essentially no June cut in the curve. A higher-for-longer policy path is what's pinning real yields here, and unless CPI (referenced in the investing.com headline "…US CPI awaited") prints a clean downside surprise, real yields don't get the catalyst they need to roll over.

DXY: 99.92, +0.75% intraday, +0.71% week. Daily RSI 62.9, daily MACD histogram positive, price above the 20/50/200 EMA stack — the dollar is on its front foot. The 30-day daily-return correlation between DXY and XAU is -0.76, which is tight. Every tick the dollar adds is roughly a tick gold loses. With DXY's daily structure constructive (price above EMA200 by 1.2 points) and weekly momentum building, the macro vector points the same way as the real-yield read.

Cross-asset reads. VIX at 18.17 (-4.0%) says risk appetite is back — the haven bid is fading, not surging. GVZ at 27.17 is meaningfully elevated for gold vol — option markets are pricing the possibility of a big move, and given where spot sits relative to weekly support, that vol premium most likely embeds the tail of a deeper flush. Gold/silver ratio at 63.5 with silver $68.54 shows silver outperforming on the day, which is a PM-regime tell: when industrial PMs lead and gold lags, you are not in a haven-bid regime. Bitcoin flat at $63,117 — no "digital gold" rotation either way. WTI -1.8% to $89.70 quietly removes a marginal inflation prop.

The macro stack is uniformly bearish for gold. There is no cell in this frame that is bullish.

Two scenarios

These conviction scores are qualitative reads, not back-tested probabilities.

Sell setup

• Trigger: Rejection in the 4,356–4,376 zone (1h EMA20/50 cluster + daily R1/R2 confluence). Specifically: a 1h close back below 4,356.33.
• Invalidation: 4h close above 4,412.63 (daily R3). That would put price back above the 4h EMA20 (4,397.82) and through the 0.382 fib of the session swing.
• Target: Weekly S1 at 4,257.00. Stretch target daily S3 / weekly S1 cluster around 4,243–4,257.
• Conviction: 62%
• Rationale: Trend, macro and the investing.com aggregate all agree, and a +176k net managed-money long has not been forced to capitulate yet. The bounce-fade is the highest-quality structure on the chart because it gives you a tight stop against a clean R1+EMA shelf and asymmetric R:R into a defined level.

Buy setup

• Trigger: Reclaim of 4,300 after a tag of the 4,257–4,264 confluence (weekly S1 + daily S2). Specifically: a 1h higher low above 4,280 with a close above 4,300.
• Invalidation: 1h close below 4,257.
• Target: Daily pivot 4,320.47 → daily R1 4,356.33 (covers into the 1h EMA cluster).
• Conviction: 38%
• Rationale: Pure mean-reversion on stretched daily RSI (35.5) and a turning daily MACD histogram. This is a scalp, not a trend trade — the macro frame is hostile and you are fighting the dominant flow. Size accordingly. The trade exists only because the daily exhaustion is real and price is approaching a level that prints across both pivot systems.

Levels worth marking

• 4,571.30 — session high, top of the swing used as fib anchor.
• 4,479.30 — weekly R1, the line dividing "broken" from "still in trouble."
• 4,432–4,465 — golden pocket (0.5–0.618 fib of session swing). High-probability rejection zone.
• 4,412.63 — daily R3, sell-invalidation.
• 4,399.20 / 4,397.82 — weekly pivot and 4h EMA20. A real ceiling.
• 4,356–4,379 — daily R1 + 1h EMA20/50 supply shelf. Primary fade zone.
• 4,320.47 — daily pivot. The session's tactical line in the sand.
• 4,257–4,264 — weekly S1 + daily S2. Primary demand zone.
• 4,176.90 — weekly S2. Where a real breakdown leads.

Calendar / catalysts

From the pre-fetched ForexFactory block:

• Sun Jun 7 · All Day · Medium · OPEC-JMMC Meetings
• Sun Jun 7 · All Day · Medium · OPEC Meetings

Both events are already behind the tape, which means the calendar this run is effectively empty for gold-specific catalysts in the immediate session. The investing.com headline flow flags US CPI as the next macro hinge ("…US CPI awaited") — but a specific date for that print is not in the pre-fetched calendar block, so I won't manufacture one. Trade the tape you have; do not pre-position for an event whose date this brief does not give us.

Sources cited

investing.com (news + automated technical aggregate), onewordnews (sentiment baseline at 0.00), Treasury.gov real yields (2.21% TIPS print), CFTC COT (managed-money +176,020 / commercials -206,345), Fed-funds futures (97% hold at June 17), ForexFactory (OPEC events), Kitco (price reference), DailyFX (general flow).

Desk summary & bias

Gold is being squeezed between a structural macro headwind it cannot answer — 2.21% real yields, 97% Fed-hold, DXY breaking out on the daily — and a tactical exhaustion signal that is real but not yet actionable. The session-long unwind of the Iran/Israel premium is the proximate cause; the medium-term issue is that managed money is +176k net long into a tape where every EMA is overhead. Watch 4,320 as the tactical pivot and 4,257 as the line between "controlled selling" and "long liquidation." The single most important thing to watch next is whether 4h RSI prints sub-30 at or above weekly S1 — that's the trigger for the only credible buy on the chart.

#	Bias	Setup	Trigger	Entry zone	Invalidation	Target	Conviction	Why
1	SELL	Bounce-fade at R1/EMA shelf	1h close back below 4,356.33 after tag	4,356 – 4,376	4h close > 4,412.63	4,257.00	62%	Daily R1 + 1h EMA20/50 + macro stack all agree; large spec long not yet flushed
2	BUY	Oversold scalp at weekly S1	Reclaim 4,300 after tag of 4,257–4,264	4,257 – 4,280	1h close < 4,257	4,356.33	38%	Daily RSI 35.5, MACD histogram curling up; mean reversion only — counter-trend
3	SELL	Trend continuation on S1 break	1h close below 4,257.00	4,243 – 4,257 (on retest)	1h close > 4,300	4,176.90	50%	Long-liquidation cascade scenario; weekly S2 is the next pivot system level

Net desk bias: SELL. Real yields at 2.21% with a 97% Fed-hold path is not a tape that rewards buying gold dips on technicals alone, and the DXY daily structure (above all EMAs, RSI 62.9) reinforces that. The multi-timeframe trend is unanimously down with investing.com's aggregate agreeing. The 4h/1d RSI exhaustion is the one piece of evidence on the bull side, but I am weighting the macro and trend over the oscillator read because COT positioning means a stretched RSI here can still get more stretched. The buy idea exists as a tactical scalp into defined support, not as a directional view.

(not financial advice)

//@version=5
indicator("Gold Desk 2026-06-09 — bias SELL", overlay=true, max_lines_count=300, max_labels_count=300, max_boxes_count=100)

// ── Inputs ──
showFibs   = input.bool(true, "Show Fibonacci")
showZones  = input.bool(true, "Show S/R zones")
showIdeas  = input.bool(true, "Show trade ideas")
showPivots = input.bool(true, "Show pivots")

// ── Swing anchor (session range 2026-06-09) ──
swingHigh = 4571.30
swingLow  = 4293.00
rng = swingHigh - swingLow

// ── EMAs ──
ema20  = ta.ema(close, 20)
ema50  = ta.ema(close, 50)
ema200 = ta.ema(close, 200)
plot(ema20,  "EMA20",  color=color.new(color.yellow, 0), linewidth=1)
plot(ema50,  "EMA50",  color=color.new(color.orange, 0), linewidth=2)
plot(ema200, "EMA200", color=color.new(color.fuchsia, 0), linewidth=2)

// ── Fibonacci of session swing ──
fib0   = swingLow
fib236 = swingLow + rng * 0.236
fib382 = swingLow + rng * 0.382
fib500 = swingLow + rng * 0.500
fib618 = swingLow + rng * 0.618
fib786 = swingLow + rng * 0.786
fib100 = swingHigh

hline(showFibs ? fib236 : na, "Fib 0.236", color=color.new(color.gray, 30), linestyle=hline.style_dotted)
hline(showFibs ? fib382 : na, "Fib 0.382", color=color.new(color.gray, 10), linestyle=hline.style_dashed)
hline(showFibs ? fib786 : na, "Fib 0.786", color=color.new(color.gray, 30), linestyle=hline.style_dotted)

// ── Golden pocket (0.5–0.618) — shaded ──
var box gpBox = na
if showFibs and barstate.islast
    box.delete(gpBox)
    gpBox := box.new(bar_index - 200, fib618, bar_index + 30, fib500, bgcolor=color.new(color.yellow, 80), border_color=color.new(color.yellow, 40), text="GOLDEN POCKET 4,432–4,465", text_color=color.new(color.yellow, 0), text_size=size.small)

// ── Supply / Demand zones (boxes) ──
var box supplyHi  = na
var box supplyMid = na
var box demandLo  = na
var box demandMid = na
if showZones and barstate.islast
    box.delete(supplyHi)
    box.delete(supplyMid)
    box.delete(demandLo)
    box.delete(demandMid)
    supplyHi  := box.new(bar_index - 200, 4479.30, bar_index + 30, 4412.63, bgcolor=color.new(color.red, 85), border_color=color.new(color.red, 50), text="Weekly R1 / Daily R3 supply", text_color=color.new(color.red, 0), text_size=size.small)
    supplyMid := box.new(bar_index - 200, 4376.77, bar_index + 30, 4356.33, bgcolor=color.new(color.red, 75), border_color=color.new(color.red, 30), text="Daily R1–R2 + 1h EMA20/50 — primary fade", text_color=color.new(color.red, 0), text_size=size.small)
    demandMid := box.new(bar_index - 200, 4300.03, bar_index + 30, 4264.17, bgcolor=color.new(color.green, 80), border_color=color.new(color.green, 40), text="Daily S1–S2 demand", text_color=color.new(color.green, 0), text_size=size.small)
    demandLo  := box.new(bar_index - 200, 4264.17, bar_index + 30, 4243.73, bgcolor=color.new(color.green, 70), border_color=color.new(color.green, 30), text="Weekly S1 / Daily S3 — major demand", text_color=color.new(color.green, 0), text_size=size.small)

// ── Pivots ──
hline(showPivots ? 4320.47 : na, "Daily P",  color=color.new(color.aqua, 0), linestyle=hline.style_solid)
hline(showPivots ? 4399.20 : na, "Weekly P", color=color.new(color.aqua, 20), linestyle=hline.style_dashed)
hline(showPivots ? 4257.00 : na, "Weekly S1", color=color.new(color.lime, 0), linestyle=hline.style_dashed)
hline(showPivots ? 4176.90 : na, "Weekly S2", color=color.new(color.lime, 30), linestyle=hline.style_dotted)
hline(showPivots ? 4479.30 : na, "Weekly R1", color=color.new(color.red, 0), linestyle=hline.style_dashed)

// ── Trade Idea 1: SELL bounce-fade ──
var line sell1Inv = na
var line sell1Tgt = na
var label sell1Lbl = na
if showIdeas and barstate.islast
    line.delete(sell1Inv)
    line.delete(sell1Tgt)
    label.delete(sell1Lbl)
    sell1Inv := line.new(bar_index, 4412.63, bar_index + 50, 4412.63, color=color.new(color.red, 0), width=2, style=line.style_dashed)
    sell1Tgt := line.new(bar_index, 4257.00, bar_index + 50, 4257.00, color=color.new(color.red, 30), width=2, style=line.style_solid)
    sell1Lbl := label.new(bar_index + 50, 4366.00, "SELL bounce-fade  62%", color=color.new(color.red, 20), textcolor=color.white, style=label.style_label_left, size=size.small)

// ── Trade Idea 2: BUY oversold scalp ──
var line buy2Inv = na
var line buy2Tgt = na
var box  buy2Box = na
var label buy2Lbl = na
if showIdeas and barstate.islast
    line.delete(buy2Inv)
    line.delete(buy2Tgt)
    box.delete(buy2Box)
    label.delete(buy2Lbl)
    buy2Box := box.new(bar_index, 4280.00, bar_index + 50, 4257.00, bgcolor=color.new(color.green, 60), border_color=color.new(color.green, 10), text="BUY entry 4,257–4,280", text_color=color.white, text_size=size.small)
    buy2Inv := line.new(bar_index, 4257.00, bar_index + 50, 4257.00, color=color.new(color.green, 0), width=2, style=line.style_dashed)
    buy2Tgt := line.new(bar_index, 4356.33, bar_index + 50, 4356.33, color=color.new(color.green, 30), width=2, style=line.style_solid)
    buy2Lbl := label.new(bar_index + 50, 4268.00, "BUY scalp  38%", color=color.new(color.green, 20), textcolor=color.white, style=label.style_label_left, size=size.small)

// ── Trade Idea 3: SELL continuation on S1 break ──
var line sell3Inv = na
var line sell3Tgt = na
var label sell3Lbl = na
if showIdeas and barstate.islast
    line.delete(sell3Inv)
    line.delete(sell3Tgt)
    label.delete(sell3Lbl)
    sell3Inv := line.new(bar_index, 4300.00, bar_index + 50, 4300.00, color=color.new(color.red, 0), width=1, style=line.style_dotted)
    sell3Tgt := line.new(bar_index, 4176.90, bar_index + 50, 4176.90, color=color.new(color.red, 0), width=2, style=line.style_solid)
    sell3Lbl := label.new(bar_index + 50, 4250.00, "SELL break-cont  50%", color=color.new(color.red, 40), textcolor=color.white, style=label.style_label_left, size=size.small)

// ── Net bias banner (top-right table) ──
var table banner = table.new(position.top_right, 2, 4, bgcolor=color.new(color.black, 20), border_color=color.new(color.red, 0), border_width=1)
if barstate.islast
    table.cell(banner, 0, 0, "NET BIAS", text_color=color.white, bgcolor=color.new(color.red, 30), text_size=size.normal)
    table.cell(banner, 1, 0, "SELL", text_color=color.white, bgcolor=color.new(color.red, 0), text_size=size.large)
    table.cell(banner, 0, 1, "Real yld", text_color=color.silver, text_size=size.small)
    table.cell(banner, 1, 1, "2.21% +2bp", text_color=color.white, text_size=size.small)
    table.cell(banner, 0, 2, "Fed hold", text_color=color.silver, text_size=size.small)
    table.cell(banner, 1, 2, "97% Jun17", text_color=color.white, text_size=size.small)
    table.cell(banner, 0, 3, "DXY", text_color=color.silver, text_size=size.small)
    table.cell(banner, 1, 3, "99.92 +0.75%", text_color=color.white, text_size=size.small)

{"bias": "SELL",
 "ideas": [
   {"bias": "SELL", "label": "Bounce-fade at R1/EMA shelf", "entry_low": 4356, "entry_high": 4376,
    "invalidation": 4412, "target": 4257, "conviction": 62},
   {"bias": "BUY", "label": "Oversold scalp at weekly S1", "entry_low": 4257, "entry_high": 4280,
    "invalidation": 4257, "target": 4356, "conviction": 38},
   {"bias": "SELL", "label": "Trend continuation on S1 break", "entry_low": 4243, "entry_high": 4257,
    "invalidation": 4300, "target": 4176, "conviction": 50}
 ]}

TradingView chart script

Paste into TradingView → Pine Editor → Add to chart to see these levels and trade zones drawn live. (Also attached to the email edition as a .pine file.)

//@version=5
indicator("Gold Desk 2026-06-09 — bias SELL", overlay=true, max_lines_count=300, max_labels_count=300, max_boxes_count=100)

// ── Inputs ──
showFibs   = input.bool(true, "Show Fibonacci")
showZones  = input.bool(true, "Show S/R zones")
showIdeas  = input.bool(true, "Show trade ideas")
showPivots = input.bool(true, "Show pivots")

// ── Swing anchor (session range 2026-06-09) ──
swingHigh = 4571.30
swingLow  = 4293.00
rng = swingHigh - swingLow

// ── EMAs ──
ema20  = ta.ema(close, 20)
ema50  = ta.ema(close, 50)
ema200 = ta.ema(close, 200)
plot(ema20,  "EMA20",  color=color.new(color.yellow, 0), linewidth=1)
plot(ema50,  "EMA50",  color=color.new(color.orange, 0), linewidth=2)
plot(ema200, "EMA200", color=color.new(color.fuchsia, 0), linewidth=2)

// ── Fibonacci of session swing ──
fib0   = swingLow
fib236 = swingLow + rng * 0.236
fib382 = swingLow + rng * 0.382
fib500 = swingLow + rng * 0.500
fib618 = swingLow + rng * 0.618
fib786 = swingLow + rng * 0.786
fib100 = swingHigh

hline(showFibs ? fib236 : na, "Fib 0.236", color=color.new(color.gray, 30), linestyle=hline.style_dotted)
hline(showFibs ? fib382 : na, "Fib 0.382", color=color.new(color.gray, 10), linestyle=hline.style_dashed)
hline(showFibs ? fib786 : na, "Fib 0.786", color=color.new(color.gray, 30), linestyle=hline.style_dotted)

// ── Golden pocket (0.5–0.618) — shaded ──
var box gpBox = na
if showFibs and barstate.islast
    box.delete(gpBox)
    gpBox := box.new(bar_index - 200, fib618, bar_index + 30, fib500, bgcolor=color.new(color.yellow, 80), border_color=color.new(color.yellow, 40), text="GOLDEN POCKET 4,432–4,465", text_color=color.new(color.yellow, 0), text_size=size.small)

// ── Supply / Demand zones (boxes) ──
var box supplyHi  = na
var box supplyMid = na
var box demandLo  = na
var box demandMid = na
if showZones and barstate.islast
    box.delete(supplyHi)
    box.delete(supplyMid)
    box.delete(demandLo)
    box.delete(demandMid)
    supplyHi  := box.new(bar_index - 200, 4479.30, bar_index + 30, 4412.63, bgcolor=color.new(color.red, 85), border_color=color.new(color.red, 50), text="Weekly R1 / Daily R3 supply", text_color=color.new(color.red, 0), text_size=size.small)
    supplyMid := box.new(bar_index - 200, 4376.77, bar_index + 30, 4356.33, bgcolor=color.new(color.red, 75), border_color=color.new(color.red, 30), text="Daily R1–R2 + 1h EMA20/50 — primary fade", text_color=color.new(color.red, 0), text_size=size.small)
    demandMid := box.new(bar_index - 200, 4300.03, bar_index + 30, 4264.17, bgcolor=color.new(color.green, 80), border_color=color.new(color.green, 40), text="Daily S1–S2 demand", text_color=color.new(color.green, 0), text_size=size.small)
    demandLo  := box.new(bar_index - 200, 4264.17, bar_index + 30, 4243.73, bgcolor=color.new(color.green, 70), border_color=color.new(color.green, 30), text="Weekly S1 / Daily S3 — major demand", text_color=color.new(color.green, 0), text_size=size.small)

// ── Pivots ──
hline(showPivots ? 4320.47 : na, "Daily P",  color=color.new(color.aqua, 0), linestyle=hline.style_solid)
hline(showPivots ? 4399.20 : na, "Weekly P", color=color.new(color.aqua, 20), linestyle=hline.style_dashed)
hline(showPivots ? 4257.00 : na, "Weekly S1", color=color.new(color.lime, 0), linestyle=hline.style_dashed)
hline(showPivots ? 4176.90 : na, "Weekly S2", color=color.new(color.lime, 30), linestyle=hline.style_dotted)
hline(showPivots ? 4479.30 : na, "Weekly R1", color=color.new(color.red, 0), linestyle=hline.style_dashed)

// ── Trade Idea 1: SELL bounce-fade ──
var line sell1Inv = na
var line sell1Tgt = na
var label sell1Lbl = na
if showIdeas and barstate.islast
    line.delete(sell1Inv)
    line.delete(sell1Tgt)
    label.delete(sell1Lbl)
    sell1Inv := line.new(bar_index, 4412.63, bar_index + 50, 4412.63, color=color.new(color.red, 0), width=2, style=line.style_dashed)
    sell1Tgt := line.new(bar_index, 4257.00, bar_index + 50, 4257.00, color=color.new(color.red, 30), width=2, style=line.style_solid)
    sell1Lbl := label.new(bar_index + 50, 4366.00, "SELL bounce-fade  62%", color=color.new(color.red, 20), textcolor=color.white, style=label.style_label_left, size=size.small)

// ── Trade Idea 2: BUY oversold scalp ──
var line buy2Inv = na
var line buy2Tgt = na
var box  buy2Box = na
var label buy2Lbl = na
if showIdeas and barstate.islast
    line.delete(buy2Inv)
    line.delete(buy2Tgt)
    box.delete(buy2Box)
    label.delete(buy2Lbl)
    buy2Box := box.new(bar_index, 4280.00, bar_index + 50, 4257.00, bgcolor=color.new(color.green, 60), border_color=color.new(color.green, 10), text="BUY entry 4,257–4,280", text_color=color.white, text_size=size.small)
    buy2Inv := line.new(bar_index, 4257.00, bar_index + 50, 4257.00, color=color.new(color.green, 0), width=2, style=line.style_dashed)
    buy2Tgt := line.new(bar_index, 4356.33, bar_index + 50, 4356.33, color=color.new(color.green, 30), width=2, style=line.style_solid)
    buy2Lbl := label.new(bar_index + 50, 4268.00, "BUY scalp  38%", color=color.new(color.green, 20), textcolor=color.white, style=label.style_label_left, size=size.small)

// ── Trade Idea 3: SELL continuation on S1 break ──
var line sell3Inv = na
var line sell3Tgt = na
var label sell3Lbl = na
if showIdeas and barstate.islast
    line.delete(sell3Inv)
    line.delete(sell3Tgt)
    label.delete(sell3Lbl)
    sell3Inv := line.new(bar_index, 4300.00, bar_index + 50, 4300.00, color=color.new(color.red, 0), width=1, style=line.style_dotted)
    sell3Tgt := line.new(bar_index, 4176.90, bar_index + 50, 4176.90, color=color.new(color.red, 0), width=2, style=line.style_solid)
    sell3Lbl := label.new(bar_index + 50, 4250.00, "SELL break-cont  50%", color=color.new(color.red, 40), textcolor=color.white, style=label.style_label_left, size=size.small)

// ── Net bias banner (top-right table) ──
var table banner = table.new(position.top_right, 2, 4, bgcolor=color.new(color.black, 20), border_color=color.new(color.red, 0), border_width=1)
if barstate.islast
    table.cell(banner, 0, 0, "NET BIAS", text_color=color.white, bgcolor=color.new(color.red, 30), text_size=size.normal)
    table.cell(banner, 1, 0, "SELL", text_color=color.white, bgcolor=color.new(color.red, 0), text_size=size.large)
    table.cell(banner, 0, 1, "Real yld", text_color=color.silver, text_size=size.small)
    table.cell(banner, 1, 1, "2.21% +2bp", text_color=color.white, text_size=size.small)
    table.cell(banner, 0, 2, "Fed hold", text_color=color.silver, text_size=size.small)
    table.cell(banner, 1, 2, "97% Jun17", text_color=color.white, text_size=size.small)
    table.cell(banner, 0, 3, "DXY", text_color=color.silver, text_size=size.small)
    table.cell(banner, 1, 3, "99.92 +0.75%", text_color=color.white, text_size=size.small)