Gold's Sunday Open: Trend Sells, Tape Bounces, Dollar Decides

Spot sits at $4,161 after a –3.7% week and an –8.2% month, parked on daily S1 with the dollar ripping and fed-funds futures pricing a 42% July HIKE. The daily structure is unambiguously broken — price under EMA20/50/200 — but the 4h is oversold and the session is coiled inside a $18 range. The week-ahead trade is a trend-sell against any DXY-driven bounce, with a tactical long only if Asia rejects the weekly S1 band around 4,058–4,120. The single number that matters at the 22:00 UTC re-open is 4,176 — daily R3 and the line above which the 4h mean-reversion gets a real runway.

The session

Spot PAXG closed Friday at 4,161.38, intraday +0.11% but coiled in a tight 4,148.59–4,166.77 band — a Friday-afternoon compression after a brutal cash week (–3.74%, –8.24% monthly). COMEX front-month (GC=F) printed 4,167.50, a +0.15% basis premium over PAXG, consistent with normal contango and not signalling stress. The catalyst behind the week's damage was straight-line dollar strength: DXY closed 100.95, +1.19% on the day, +1.09% on the week, with hourly RSI at 71 and 4h RSI at 75 — extended but not yet exhausted.

Friday's print is the quiet before Asia opens in two hours. The tape is sitting one daily pivot above the floor and one S2 below the prior swing's congestion shelf. Either side gets resolved fast on Monday.

Multi-timeframe read

• 15m / 1h — Mild positive bias. Price is above 15m EMA20/50 (+$0.20 / +$0.90) and 1h EMA20 (+$1.50), with RSI mid-50s and MACD histograms slightly positive but rolling. This is a coil, not a trend.
• 4h — Oversold mean-reversion building. RSI 45.3, MACD histogram +6.02 and rising (the only meaningful positive momentum signal in the whole stack). Price is –$15.7 below 4h EMA20 — close enough to reclaim it on a single decent push.
• 1d — Comprehensively broken. RSI 36.1, MACD histogram negative and falling, price –$115 below EMA20, –$254 below EMA50, –$336 below EMA200. The daily EMA stack is in textbook bear order (20 < 50 < 200).

The TFs disagree, and the disagreement is the trade structure: lower-timeframe bounce setups inside a higher-timeframe sell. Where they converge: nothing on any timeframe says "buy the breakout." Every long here is counter-trend.

investing.com's automated daily aggregate reads Strong Sell (1 buy / 11 sells on MA composite, RSI Sell, MACD Sell). My own read aligns on the daily but is more constructive intraday — they're scanning daily MAs and ignoring the 4h MACD bottoming pattern. Worth noting, not worth fighting.

Macro frame

The primary driver: US 10y real yield (TIPS) at 2.21%, down 2 bp d/d. That's a marginal tailwind for gold — but at 2.21% the real cost of holding a non-yielding metal is still historically punishing. The 10y nominal sits at 4.46% (–3 bp), breakevens at 2.25% (–1 bp); the d/d give-back in nominals came almost entirely from the real-yield leg, not from softer inflation expectations.

The real-yield path from here is dictated by the Fed odds, and this is where the read gets ugly for gold. Fed-funds futures are pricing the July 29 FOMC at 58% hold / 42% HIKE — and zero cut probability. A market pricing better-than-coin-flip odds of another hike does not let real yields fall meaningfully. The whole gold complex is sitting on the wrong side of that distribution.

DXY at 100.95 is the transmission mechanism: hourly RSI 71, 4h RSI 75, daily RSI 71, all EMAs stacked bullishly, daily MACD positive and rising. The 30-day daily-return correlation between DXY and XAU is –0.49 — meaningful but not absolute. Translation: DXY is doing roughly half the damage to gold directly; the other half is the real-yield channel.

Cross-asset frame:

• GVZ 27.90 — gold implied vol elevated but not panic. Annualised 27.9% prices a 1-sigma weekly move of ~$161, i.e. an implied weekly range of roughly 4,000–4,322. Useful for sizing stops.
• Gold/Silver ratio 64.1, silver $64.91 — silver is outperforming the metal, a regime that historically aligns with risk-on/inflation-trade pricing rather than safe-haven flows. Gold is being sold as a real-rate trade, not bought as a haven.
• WTI $76.54, BTC $64,030 — both flat. No commodity-complex or "digital gold" tell that breaks the dollar narrative.
• VIX unavailable in this run.

Two scenarios

Conviction below is qualitative — my honest read, not a back-tested probability.

Sell setup

• Trigger: Rejection in the 4,169–4,176 zone (daily R2 → R3) on the first Asia/London probe; or a clean H1 close back under 4,148.
• Invalidation: H4 close above 4,217 (weekly pivot). That re-opens the door to the 4,247–4,277 golden pocket.
• Target: First take-off at 4,120 (weekly low). Stretch target at weekly S1 4,058.
• Conviction: 60%
• Rationale: Daily structure broken, DXY extended but still trending, Fed odds asymmetric to the hawkish side, investing.com aggregate confirms. The path of least resistance into Canadian CPI and US PMIs is down.

Buy setup

• Trigger: Bullish reaction (4h hammer / engulf) in the 4,058–4,120 zone (weekly S1 + prior week low).
• Invalidation: H4 close under 4,058. Below that, weekly S2 at 3,962 opens.
• Target: 4,217 weekly pivot, with a stretch to the 4,247–4,277 golden pocket.
• Conviction: 40%
• Rationale: Counter-trend tactical. Daily RSI 36, 4h MACD bottoming, GVZ pricing a band that puts 4,058 at the 1-sigma weekly floor. A washout into that level is the cleanest dip the macro tape will hand a buyer this week.

Levels worth marking

• Immediate ceiling: 4,166.77 (session high) → 4,169.14 (daily R2) → 4,175.68 (daily R3). Confluence cluster — first real test of bid.
• Immediate floor: 4,148.59 (session low) → 4,147.66 (daily S1) → 4,141.12 (daily S2) → 4,133.65 (daily S3).
• The big magnet above: 4,216.31 weekly pivot — also coincident with fib 0.382 of the 4,120–4,374 swing (4,217.03). Triple-confluence; the entire week's bullish case lives or dies there.
• Golden pocket: 4,247–4,277 (fib 0.5–0.618). Reload zone for shorts if we ever get there.
• The line that breaks the bear: 4,276 daily EMA20 — first thing trend-followers will defend.
• Floor structure: 4,120.04 (prior week low) → 4,058.68 (weekly S1) → 3,962.40 (weekly S2).

Calendar / catalysts

• Mon Jun 22, 15:30 UTC — CAD CPI m/m (f: 0.7%, p: 0.4%) + Median/Trimmed CPI y/y. High impact for CAD, second-order for gold via the rates-complex echo if the print is hot.
• Mon Jun 22 — ECB President Lagarde speaks (medium impact). Could spike EUR and indirectly bleed DXY — the only macro lever this week that could relieve gold pressure.
• Tue Jun 23 — Eurozone, UK, US Flash PMIs. US Flash Manufacturing 54.6 f / 55.1 p, Services 51.0 f / 50.7 p at 16:45 UTC. Hot US PMIs = DXY higher = gold lower. This is the cleanest catalyst on the calendar.
• Tue Jun 23, 16:25 UTC — BOC Gov Macklem speaks.

No US CPI, PCE, or NFP this week. No FOMC. The week's flow is going to be PMI/Lagarde-driven, with the July 29 FOMC pricing as the slow-burn backdrop.

Week ahead

Gold reopens in ~2 hours. The weekend was thin — onewordnews aggregate commodity sentiment +0.00, the search keyword sweep (gold/DXY/yields/CPI/ECB/Lagarde/PMI) returned mostly stale CPI-themed headlines from previous cycles. Investing.com's gold tape carries the operative line: "Gold faces hurdle on path to $5,200 as hawkish Fed dampens ETF demand, MS says" and "Gold plunges 1.7% into oversold: Live levels" — Morgan Stanley is publicly framing the Fed hawk-tilt as the binding constraint, which dovetails with our 42% hike-odds read. That's not new information, but it's a sell-side desk confirming the macro frame the market is already trading.

What the market may not have priced: the Lagarde slot on Monday. If she leans dovish into the European PMIs Tuesday, EUR catches a bid, DXY rolls, and gold gets the cleanest squeeze window of the week. That's the one path on the board where the bear thesis breaks down without needing a US rates surprise.

First 4–12 hours (Asia → early London): Asia takes the open at ~22:00 UTC. The natural lean is a low-volume drift toward Friday's settlement; the asymmetric move is a stop-run on the 4,148/4,141 floor with dollar still bid. I'd expect Asia to test S1 before London adjudicates direction. Sydney rarely breaks structure on a Sunday open; Tokyo, into the back end of the session, can.

The level that changes the week: 4,176. If Asia takes 4,176 (daily R3) in the first hour and holds it on the H1 close, the 4h MACD bottoming structure activates, the immediate setup flips to a long toward 4,216 weekly pivot, and the rest of the week becomes a grind higher into Tuesday PMI tape. If 4,176 caps on first touch, the sell setup is live and the 4,120 retest is on for the Monday US session.

Anchor calendar for the week: Tuesday's US Flash PMIs are the only top-tier US data; the cleanest gold catalyst lands at 16:45 UTC Tuesday. The slow-burn is the July 29 FOMC — every Fed speaker and every PMI this week is going to be repriced against that 58/42 hold/hike distribution. There is no CPI, no PCE, no NFP. Volatility this week is technical, not data-driven.

Sources cited

• Treasury.gov 10y TIPS real yield (2.21%) and par 10y nominal (4.46%)
• CFTC COT (managed-money net +173,837 as of 06/09)
• ForexFactory economic calendar (CAD CPI, Lagarde, PMI block)
• investing.com — gold news tape (MS $5,200 / oversold note) and automated technical aggregate (Strong Sell)
• onewordnews — commodity-sentiment aggregator (+0.00)
• CBOE GVZ (27.90) for implied-vol sizing
• Fed-funds futures implied probabilities for July 29 FOMC

Desk summary & bias

Gold enters the new week with a clean break of all three daily EMAs, an investing.com aggregate flashing Strong Sell, a DXY that is extended but still trending, and a fed-funds curve pricing 42% odds of a hike at the next FOMC. The single biggest driver — the 10y real yield at 2.21% — gave back 2 bp Friday but sits at a level that structurally penalises non-yielding metals. Against that, the 4h is oversold and MACD-positive, and GVZ-implied range puts weekly S1 (4,058) right at the 1-sigma floor. The week's pivot number is 4,176: above it the bounce works, below it the trend reasserts.

#	Bias	Setup	Trigger	Entry zone	Invalidation	Target	Conviction	Why
1	SELL	Bounce-fade	Rejection at daily R2/R3 cluster	4,169–4,176	4,217 (weekly P)	4,120 → 4,058	60%	Daily structure broken, DXY trending, Fed hike-tilt, agg Strong Sell
2	BUY	Oversold reload	4h hammer at weekly S1	4,058–4,120	4,058 H4 close	4,216 → 4,247	40%	4h MACD bottoming, GVZ 1-sigma floor confluence, real yield d/d softer
3	SELL	Trend continuation	H1 close < 4,141 (daily S2)	4,141–4,148	4,176 H1 close	4,058 (weekly S1)	55%	Stop-run extension if Asia takes the floor before US PMI

Net desk bias: SELL. The macro and the technicals agree on direction even if they disagree on entry. Real yields are pinned high by a hike-biased July FOMC distribution, DXY momentum is on side, and the daily EMA stack is in bear order. I'm weighting macro over the tactical 4h bottoming because the 4h pattern needs a catalyst to play out and the calendar doesn't provide one until Tuesday PMIs — by then the dollar has had 48 more hours to extend. I'll trade the oversold bounce as a tactical scalp into 4,216, not as a thesis.

(not financial advice)

//@version=5
indicator("Gold Desk 2026-06-21 — bias SELL", overlay=true, max_lines_count=300, max_labels_count=300, max_boxes_count=100)

// ── EMAs ──
ema20  = ta.ema(close, 20)
ema50  = ta.ema(close, 50)
ema200 = ta.ema(close, 200)
plot(ema20,  "EMA20",  color=color.new(color.yellow, 0), linewidth=1)
plot(ema50,  "EMA50",  color=color.new(color.orange, 0), linewidth=1)
plot(ema200, "EMA200", color=color.new(color.red,    0), linewidth=2)

// ── Swing anchor (week H/L) ──
swingHi = 4373.95
swingLo = 4120.04
rng     = swingHi - swingLo

// ── Fibonacci retracement (from week swing) ──
f236 = swingLo + 0.236 * rng   // 4179.96
f382 = swingLo + 0.382 * rng   // 4217.03
f500 = swingLo + 0.500 * rng   // 4247.00
f618 = swingLo + 0.618 * rng   // 4276.96
f786 = swingLo + 0.786 * rng   // 4319.61
hline(f236, "Fib 0.236", color=color.new(color.gray, 30), linestyle=hline.style_dotted)
hline(f382, "Fib 0.382", color=color.new(color.gray, 20), linestyle=hline.style_dotted)
hline(f500, "Fib 0.500", color=color.new(color.gray, 10), linestyle=hline.style_dotted)
hline(f618, "Fib 0.618", color=color.new(color.gray, 10), linestyle=hline.style_dotted)
hline(f786, "Fib 0.786", color=color.new(color.gray, 30), linestyle=hline.style_dotted)

// ── Golden pocket (0.5 – 0.618) ──
var box gp = na
if barstate.islast
    box.delete(gp)
    gp := box.new(bar_index - 200, f618, bar_index + 50, f500, bgcolor=color.new(color.yellow, 80), border_color=color.new(color.yellow, 40))
    label.new(bar_index + 50, (f500 + f618) / 2, "Golden Pocket 4247–4277", color=color.new(color.yellow, 60), textcolor=color.black, style=label.style_label_left, size=size.small)

// ── Daily pivots (R2/R3, P, S1/S2/S3) ──
hline(4175.68, "Daily R3", color=color.new(color.red,   30), linestyle=hline.style_dashed)
hline(4169.14, "Daily R2", color=color.new(color.red,   50), linestyle=hline.style_dashed)
hline(4155.13, "Daily P",  color=color.new(color.gray,  30), linestyle=hline.style_solid)
hline(4147.66, "Daily S1", color=color.new(color.green, 50), linestyle=hline.style_dashed)
hline(4141.12, "Daily S2", color=color.new(color.green, 40), linestyle=hline.style_dashed)
hline(4133.65, "Daily S3", color=color.new(color.green, 30), linestyle=hline.style_dashed)

// ── Weekly pivots (the structural ones) ──
hline(4216.31, "Weekly P",  color=color.new(color.aqua,   0), linestyle=hline.style_solid)
hline(4058.68, "Weekly S1", color=color.new(color.lime,  20), linestyle=hline.style_solid)
hline(3962.40, "Weekly S2", color=color.new(color.lime,  40), linestyle=hline.style_dashed)

// ── Supply zone (daily R2/R3 cluster — SELL #1 entry) ──
var box supply = na
if barstate.islast
    box.delete(supply)
    supply := box.new(bar_index - 200, 4175.68, bar_index + 50, 4169.14, bgcolor=color.new(color.red, 75), border_color=color.new(color.red, 30))
    label.new(bar_index + 50, 4172.4, "SUPPLY 4169–4176  (SELL #1 entry, 60%)", color=color.new(color.red, 30), textcolor=color.white, style=label.style_label_left, size=size.small)

// ── Demand zone (weekly S1 → prior week low — BUY #2 entry) ──
var box demand = na
if barstate.islast
    box.delete(demand)
    demand := box.new(bar_index - 200, 4120.04, bar_index + 50, 4058.68, bgcolor=color.new(color.green, 75), border_color=color.new(color.green, 30))
    label.new(bar_index + 50, 4089.36, "DEMAND 4058–4120  (BUY #2 entry, 40%)", color=color.new(color.green, 30), textcolor=color.white, style=label.style_label_left, size=size.small)

// ── Trade idea 1: SELL bounce-fade ──
line.new(bar_index - 200, 4217.00, bar_index + 50, 4217.00, color=color.new(color.red, 0), style=line.style_dashed, width=1)
label.new(bar_index + 50, 4217.00, "SELL #1 invalidation 4217", color=color.new(color.red, 20), textcolor=color.white, style=label.style_label_left, size=size.small)
line.new(bar_index - 200, 4058.68, bar_index + 50, 4058.68, color=color.new(color.red, 30), style=line.style_dotted, width=1)
label.new(bar_index + 50, 4058.68, "SELL #1 target 4058", color=color.new(color.red, 40), textcolor=color.white, style=label.style_label_left, size=size.small)

// ── Trade idea 2: BUY oversold reload ──
line.new(bar_index - 200, 4058.00, bar_index + 50, 4058.00, color=color.new(color.green, 0), style=line.style_dashed, width=1)
label.new(bar_index + 50, 4058.00, "BUY #2 invalidation 4058 (H4 close)", color=color.new(color.green, 20), textcolor=color.white, style=label.style_label_left, size=size.small)
line.new(bar_index - 200, 4247.00, bar_index + 50, 4247.00, color=color.new(color.green, 30), style=line.style_dotted, width=1)
label.new(bar_index + 50, 4247.00, "BUY #2 target 4247", color=color.new(color.green, 40), textcolor=color.white, style=label.style_label_left, size=size.small)

// ── Trade idea 3: SELL trend continuation ──
line.new(bar_index - 200, 4141.12, bar_index + 50, 4141.12, color=color.new(color.red, 20), style=line.style_dashed, width=1)
label.new(bar_index + 50, 4141.12, "SELL #3 trigger H1 close < 4141", color=color.new(color.red, 30), textcolor=color.white, style=label.style_label_left, size=size.small)

// ── Week-decider level (4176) ──
line.new(bar_index - 200, 4176.00, bar_index + 50, 4176.00, color=color.new(color.fuchsia, 0), style=line.style_solid, width=2)
label.new(bar_index + 50, 4176.00, "WEEK-DECIDER 4176  (above → bull week)", color=color.new(color.fuchsia, 20), textcolor=color.white, style=label.style_label_left, size=size.normal)

// ── Net-bias banner ──
var table tbl = table.new(position.top_right, 2, 4, border_width=1)
if barstate.islast
    table.cell(tbl, 0, 0, "GOLD DESK 2026-06-21", bgcolor=color.new(color.black, 0), text_color=color.white, text_size=size.small)
    table.cell(tbl, 1, 0, "Sunday week-ahead", bgcolor=color.new(color.black, 0), text_color=color.white, text_size=size.small)
    table.cell(tbl, 0, 1, "Net bias", bgcolor=color.new(color.gray, 50), text_color=color.white, text_size=size.small)
    table.cell(tbl, 1, 1, "SELL", bgcolor=color.new(color.red, 0), text_color=color.white, text_size=size.large)
    table.cell(tbl, 0, 2, "Week-decider", bgcolor=color.new(color.gray, 50), text_color=color.white, text_size=size.small)
    table.cell(tbl, 1, 2, "4176", bgcolor=color.new(color.fuchsia, 30), text_color=color.white, text_size=size.normal)
    table.cell(tbl, 0, 3, "Real yield", bgcolor=color.new(color.gray, 50), text_color=color.white, text_size=size.small)
    table.cell(tbl, 1, 3, "2.21% (-2bp)", bgcolor=color.new(color.black, 0), text_color=color.white, text_size=size.small)

{"bias": "SELL",
 "ideas": [
   {"bias": "SELL", "label": "Bounce-fade", "entry_low": 4169, "entry_high": 4176,
    "invalidation": 4217, "target": 4058, "conviction": 60},
   {"bias": "BUY", "label": "Oversold reload", "entry_low": 4058, "entry_high": 4120,
    "invalidation": 4058, "target": 4247, "conviction": 40},
   {"bias": "SELL", "label": "Trend continuation", "entry_low": 4141, "entry_high": 4148,
    "invalidation": 4176, "target": 4058, "conviction": 55}
 ]}

TradingView chart script

Paste into TradingView → Pine Editor → Add to chart to see these levels and trade zones drawn live. (Also attached to the email edition as a .pine file.)

//@version=5
indicator("Gold Desk 2026-06-21 — bias SELL", overlay=true, max_lines_count=300, max_labels_count=300, max_boxes_count=100)

// ── EMAs ──
ema20  = ta.ema(close, 20)
ema50  = ta.ema(close, 50)
ema200 = ta.ema(close, 200)
plot(ema20,  "EMA20",  color=color.new(color.yellow, 0), linewidth=1)
plot(ema50,  "EMA50",  color=color.new(color.orange, 0), linewidth=1)
plot(ema200, "EMA200", color=color.new(color.red,    0), linewidth=2)

// ── Swing anchor (week H/L) ──
swingHi = 4373.95
swingLo = 4120.04
rng     = swingHi - swingLo

// ── Fibonacci retracement (from week swing) ──
f236 = swingLo + 0.236 * rng   // 4179.96
f382 = swingLo + 0.382 * rng   // 4217.03
f500 = swingLo + 0.500 * rng   // 4247.00
f618 = swingLo + 0.618 * rng   // 4276.96
f786 = swingLo + 0.786 * rng   // 4319.61
hline(f236, "Fib 0.236", color=color.new(color.gray, 30), linestyle=hline.style_dotted)
hline(f382, "Fib 0.382", color=color.new(color.gray, 20), linestyle=hline.style_dotted)
hline(f500, "Fib 0.500", color=color.new(color.gray, 10), linestyle=hline.style_dotted)
hline(f618, "Fib 0.618", color=color.new(color.gray, 10), linestyle=hline.style_dotted)
hline(f786, "Fib 0.786", color=color.new(color.gray, 30), linestyle=hline.style_dotted)

// ── Golden pocket (0.5 – 0.618) ──
var box gp = na
if barstate.islast
    box.delete(gp)
    gp := box.new(bar_index - 200, f618, bar_index + 50, f500, bgcolor=color.new(color.yellow, 80), border_color=color.new(color.yellow, 40))
    label.new(bar_index + 50, (f500 + f618) / 2, "Golden Pocket 4247–4277", color=color.new(color.yellow, 60), textcolor=color.black, style=label.style_label_left, size=size.small)

// ── Daily pivots (R2/R3, P, S1/S2/S3) ──
hline(4175.68, "Daily R3", color=color.new(color.red,   30), linestyle=hline.style_dashed)
hline(4169.14, "Daily R2", color=color.new(color.red,   50), linestyle=hline.style_dashed)
hline(4155.13, "Daily P",  color=color.new(color.gray,  30), linestyle=hline.style_solid)
hline(4147.66, "Daily S1", color=color.new(color.green, 50), linestyle=hline.style_dashed)
hline(4141.12, "Daily S2", color=color.new(color.green, 40), linestyle=hline.style_dashed)
hline(4133.65, "Daily S3", color=color.new(color.green, 30), linestyle=hline.style_dashed)

// ── Weekly pivots (the structural ones) ──
hline(4216.31, "Weekly P",  color=color.new(color.aqua,   0), linestyle=hline.style_solid)
hline(4058.68, "Weekly S1", color=color.new(color.lime,  20), linestyle=hline.style_solid)
hline(3962.40, "Weekly S2", color=color.new(color.lime,  40), linestyle=hline.style_dashed)

// ── Supply zone (daily R2/R3 cluster — SELL #1 entry) ──
var box supply = na
if barstate.islast
    box.delete(supply)
    supply := box.new(bar_index - 200, 4175.68, bar_index + 50, 4169.14, bgcolor=color.new(color.red, 75), border_color=color.new(color.red, 30))
    label.new(bar_index + 50, 4172.4, "SUPPLY 4169–4176  (SELL #1 entry, 60%)", color=color.new(color.red, 30), textcolor=color.white, style=label.style_label_left, size=size.small)

// ── Demand zone (weekly S1 → prior week low — BUY #2 entry) ──
var box demand = na
if barstate.islast
    box.delete(demand)
    demand := box.new(bar_index - 200, 4120.04, bar_index + 50, 4058.68, bgcolor=color.new(color.green, 75), border_color=color.new(color.green, 30))
    label.new(bar_index + 50, 4089.36, "DEMAND 4058–4120  (BUY #2 entry, 40%)", color=color.new(color.green, 30), textcolor=color.white, style=label.style_label_left, size=size.small)

// ── Trade idea 1: SELL bounce-fade ──
line.new(bar_index - 200, 4217.00, bar_index + 50, 4217.00, color=color.new(color.red, 0), style=line.style_dashed, width=1)
label.new(bar_index + 50, 4217.00, "SELL #1 invalidation 4217", color=color.new(color.red, 20), textcolor=color.white, style=label.style_label_left, size=size.small)
line.new(bar_index - 200, 4058.68, bar_index + 50, 4058.68, color=color.new(color.red, 30), style=line.style_dotted, width=1)
label.new(bar_index + 50, 4058.68, "SELL #1 target 4058", color=color.new(color.red, 40), textcolor=color.white, style=label.style_label_left, size=size.small)

// ── Trade idea 2: BUY oversold reload ──
line.new(bar_index - 200, 4058.00, bar_index + 50, 4058.00, color=color.new(color.green, 0), style=line.style_dashed, width=1)
label.new(bar_index + 50, 4058.00, "BUY #2 invalidation 4058 (H4 close)", color=color.new(color.green, 20), textcolor=color.white, style=label.style_label_left, size=size.small)
line.new(bar_index - 200, 4247.00, bar_index + 50, 4247.00, color=color.new(color.green, 30), style=line.style_dotted, width=1)
label.new(bar_index + 50, 4247.00, "BUY #2 target 4247", color=color.new(color.green, 40), textcolor=color.white, style=label.style_label_left, size=size.small)

// ── Trade idea 3: SELL trend continuation ──
line.new(bar_index - 200, 4141.12, bar_index + 50, 4141.12, color=color.new(color.red, 20), style=line.style_dashed, width=1)
label.new(bar_index + 50, 4141.12, "SELL #3 trigger H1 close < 4141", color=color.new(color.red, 30), textcolor=color.white, style=label.style_label_left, size=size.small)

// ── Week-decider level (4176) ──
line.new(bar_index - 200, 4176.00, bar_index + 50, 4176.00, color=color.new(color.fuchsia, 0), style=line.style_solid, width=2)
label.new(bar_index + 50, 4176.00, "WEEK-DECIDER 4176  (above → bull week)", color=color.new(color.fuchsia, 20), textcolor=color.white, style=label.style_label_left, size=size.normal)

// ── Net-bias banner ──
var table tbl = table.new(position.top_right, 2, 4, border_width=1)
if barstate.islast
    table.cell(tbl, 0, 0, "GOLD DESK 2026-06-21", bgcolor=color.new(color.black, 0), text_color=color.white, text_size=size.small)
    table.cell(tbl, 1, 0, "Sunday week-ahead", bgcolor=color.new(color.black, 0), text_color=color.white, text_size=size.small)
    table.cell(tbl, 0, 1, "Net bias", bgcolor=color.new(color.gray, 50), text_color=color.white, text_size=size.small)
    table.cell(tbl, 1, 1, "SELL", bgcolor=color.new(color.red, 0), text_color=color.white, text_size=size.large)
    table.cell(tbl, 0, 2, "Week-decider", bgcolor=color.new(color.gray, 50), text_color=color.white, text_size=size.small)
    table.cell(tbl, 1, 2, "4176", bgcolor=color.new(color.fuchsia, 30), text_color=color.white, text_size=size.normal)
    table.cell(tbl, 0, 3, "Real yield", bgcolor=color.new(color.gray, 50), text_color=color.white, text_size=size.small)
    table.cell(tbl, 1, 3, "2.21% (-2bp)", bgcolor=color.new(color.black, 0), text_color=color.white, text_size=size.small)