Gold Desk — Monday Open: DXY Spikes, Real Yields Pin Bullion Below the Weekly Pivot

A 1.4% intraday rip in DXY and a fresh repricing of Fed odds — now showing 42% hike at the July 29 meeting versus 0% cut — has driven XAU below every daily EMA and below the prior week's pivot at 4,216.31. The session opened around 4,134, bounced to 4,216.86, and reverted to 4,175; the daily print is up +0.46% but the structural picture is a sixth straight day of distribution, with weekly loss at -2.31% and monthly at -6.86%. Real yields are the headline driver — 10y TIPS at 2.21% with breakeven at 2.25% — and they are NOT cooperating with bullion. This note frames the failed retest of the weekly pivot as the line in the sand. Net desk bias: SELL.

The session

PAXG/USDT spot prints 4,174.76 at 04:20 UTC, with the session having spanned 4,134.45 – 4,216.86. The Asia-into-London bid took price right into the weekly pivot at 4,216.31 before sellers reasserted; the bounce off the 4,134 low coincided with the investing.com tape line "Gold rebounds as US-Iran talks progress; Fed outlook worries cap gains," which is exactly the read this brief supports — geopolitical relief priced in, monetary tightening risk priced out, and gold caught between them.

What actually moved overnight was the dollar, not gold. DXY tagged 100.92 (+1.39% intraday, +1.18% week), pushing daily RSI to 71.5 and 4h RSI to 76.6 — that is genuinely stretched on the dollar side. With the 30-day DXY↔XAU daily-return correlation sitting at -0.48, you do not need a special story for why gold is heavy: the dollar's been the engine, and unless DXY rolls back below 100.40 (its 4h EMA20), bullion has a structural cap.

The two headlines worth quoting outright are investing.com's "Gold faces hurdle on path to $5,200 as hawkish Fed dampens ETF demand, MS says" and the same wire's "Gold plunges 1.7% into oversold: Live levels." Both align with what the screen is telling us — daily RSI at 38.5 says the down-move is mature, not exhausted.

Multi-timeframe read

• 15m: choppy. RSI 50.1, MACD hist negative but flat, price hugging EMA20 (4,176.50) and just above EMA50 (4,169.95). No edge here; it is a coin flip until either the daily R1 (4,157.72) gives way or the weekly pivot (4,216.31) is reclaimed.
• 1h: bullish-bias intraday. RSI 54.8, MACD hist +1.98 but turning down. Price is +8 above both EMA20 and EMA50, which have flattened. This is the timeframe responsible for the overnight bounce, but it is the LEAST important.
• 4h: neutral / tipping bearish. RSI 48.1, price exactly on EMA20 (4,174.72). The 4h MACD histogram is +7.42 and tilted up — the only timeframe with a constructive momentum read. Treat the 4h EMA20 as the binary: hold it, scalp longs are alive; lose it, the day belongs to the bears.
• 1d: outright bearish. RSI 38.5, MACD hist negative, price -90 below EMA20 (4,264.79), -229.9 below EMA50 (4,404.69), -319.1 below EMA200 (4,493.89). Every relevant moving average is overhead and downward-sloping.

Where the timeframes agree: trend is down on the daily, momentum is exhausted on the daily, the dollar is the force. Where they diverge: 1h and 4h are trying to coil for a bounce while the daily wants a continuation. Resolution mechanically lives between the daily R1 (4,157.72) and the golden pocket of the week's range — 4,221.88 to 4,245.91 — which is exactly where the daily EMA20 sits. That is the supply zone the rally has to break to invalidate the bear case.

Investing.com's automated daily aggregate prints Strong Sell (5 buy / 7 sell on MAs); this aligns with my read. The point of disagreement is on momentum oscillators: they tag both RSI and MACD as "Neutral" on the daily — I am calling RSI 38.5 with negative-but-curling MACD as bearish but late, not neutral. That's a one-notch difference; not enough to fight.

Macro frame

Lead with real yields, because that is what actually moves gold over horizons longer than an Asia session.

• US 10y REAL yield (TIPS): 2.21%, -2 bp d/d (Treasury.gov data as of 06/18). Down two basis points marginally is a gold tailwind, but the LEVEL — 2.21% real — is structurally hostile. Gold ETF holders are paying a 220 bps opportunity cost to hold ounces, and that is precisely what the Morgan Stanley note flagged via investing.com: "hawkish Fed dampens ETF demand."
• Breakeven inflation: 2.25%, -1 bp d/d. Inflation expectations are sticky at the Fed's stated target, NOT pricing a re-acceleration. Without a breakeven impulse, gold cannot rely on the inflation hedge bid.
• Nominal 10y: 4.46%, -3 bp d/d, decomposing to 2.21 real + 2.25 BEI. The nominal is drifting lower but the real bid is doing very little of the work.

Now overlay the Fed path from fed-funds futures: at the July 29 FOMC, the implied distribution is 0% cut, 58% hold, 42% hike off the current 3.75% upper bound. A 42% hike probability at a meeting six weeks out is not "neutral." That is the market handicapping a hawkish pivot, and it is the proximate reason DXY is at multi-week highs and why real yields refuse to break lower. Until that hike probability is taken out below ~25%, gold's path of least resistance is sideways-to-down.

DXY: 100.92, with daily RSI 71.5 and 4h RSI 76.6. Stretched, yes, but the 1d MACD hist is still expanding (+0.10, up). The DXY bias is up, the gold bias is down, and the -0.48 correlation keeps them locked.

Cross-asset frame: VIX 16.40 (-11.1%) — equity-risk tone is benign, so gold gets no safe-haven bid. GVZ at 27.90 is elevated (normal is high teens to low 20s); the options market is pricing a non-trivial move, which favours setups with defined invalidation over directional flat-fade. Gold/silver ratio 63.5 with silver at $65.74 — silver is the stronger horse in the precious complex right now, which is consistent with industrial demand holding up better than monetary demand. WTI $75.51 (-1.4%) removes the inflation-bid impulse. BTC $63,889 — the "digital gold" tape isn't being bought either; this is a risk-off-the-monetary-bid story, not a sector rotation.

No fresh G10 central-bank colour beyond the ECB Lagarde double-header on the Monday calendar (see below); the news block this run is dominated by CPI-tagged stories that are mostly noise — investing.com sentiment averages 0.00.

Two scenarios

This is qualitative conviction, not a back-tested probability.

Sell setup

• Trigger: intraday rejection in the 4,190.04 – 4,216.31 zone (daily R3 to weekly P), confirmed by a 1h close back below 4,190.
• Invalidation: 1d close above 4,264.79 (daily EMA20). That reclaims the 0.618 fib of the week's range and changes the trend.
• Target: 4,058.68 (weekly S1). Stretch target 3,962.40 (weekly S2) if real yields stay above 2.20%.
• Conviction: 60%.
• Rationale: The daily is below every relevant EMA, the 10y real is at 2.21% with a 42% hike pricing, DXY is breaking out, and investing.com's aggregate prints Strong Sell. The golden pocket 4,221.88 – 4,245.91 caps every bounce.

Buy setup

• Trigger: sweep of daily S1 (4,125.40) into S2 (4,113.76) followed by a reclaim of S1 on a 1h close.
• Invalidation: 1h close below 4,093.08 (daily S3) — that opens the path straight to 4,058.68 and you do not want to be long into the weekly S1 magnet.
• Target: 4,157.72 (daily R1). A spot above-pivot scalp; do not press it toward the golden pocket.
• Conviction: 40%.
• Rationale: Daily RSI 38.5 says the down-move is mature, GVZ 27.90 means mean-reversion scalps pay, and the 4h MACD hist is still constructive. This is a tactical fade of an oversold extension, not a trend trade.

Levels worth marking

• Resistance overhead (in order): 4,190.04 (daily R3) · 4,216.31 (weekly P) · 4,221.88 (0.5 fib of the 5-session range 4,120.04 – 4,323.72) · 4,245.91 (0.618 fib — golden-pocket top) · 4,264.79 (daily EMA20) · 4,312.59 (weekly R1).
• Support below: 4,157.72 (daily R1, now resistance-flipped pivot) · 4,146.08 (daily P) · 4,125.40 (daily S1) · 4,120.04 (5-session low) · 4,113.76 (daily S2) · 4,093.08 (daily S3) · 4,058.68 (weekly S1).
• Confluence to circle: the 4,221.88 – 4,245.91 golden pocket sits directly under the daily EMA20 (4,264.79) — that is your supply stack. The 4,113.76 – 4,125.40 band is the demand stack; below it, gravity points at 4,058.68.
• COMEX basis: GC=F at 4,195.80, +0.50% over PAXG spot — modest contango, no stress signal.

Calendar / catalysts

From ForexFactory (pre-fetched this run):

• Mon Jun 22 — CAD CPI block (m/m forecast 0.7% vs prev 0.4%; median y/y 2.1%; trimmed y/y 2.0%) at 15:30 BST. CAD-specific; spillover to gold is muted unless it surprises hot and amplifies the hawkish-G10 narrative.
• Mon Jun 22 — ECB Lagarde double-header at 16:00 and 18:25. THIS is the gold-relevant Monday flow. Any hint that ECB sees inflation re-acceleration or pushes back on the next cut tightens global real yields = gold headwind.
• Tue Jun 23 — Flash PMI marathon. French / German / UK / US Flash Manufacturing PMI (forecast 54.6 vs prev 55.1) and Flash Services PMI (51.0 vs 50.7) at 16:45 BST. A hot US flash PMI is the cleanest near-term path to lifting the July hike probability above 50% and pressuring gold to 4,058.
• Tue Jun 23 — BoC Macklem at 16:25, after Canadian CPI.

Sources cited

investing.com (gold news + automated daily technical aggregate), onewordnews (commodity sentiment), CFTC COT (managed-money positioning), Treasury.gov (10y real yields), ForexFactory (economic calendar), Morgan Stanley note (via investing.com).

Desk summary & bias

The single read: real yields at 2.21% with a 42% hike pricing for July, DXY breaking out at 100.92, and gold below every daily EMA. The 1h bounce is real but it is countertrend; the supply stack at 4,221 – 4,265 is where the bounce dies. Watch Tuesday's US Flash PMI — that is the catalyst that either confirms the SELL by lifting hike odds, or unwinds it by softening the dollar.

#	Bias	Setup	Trigger	Entry zone	Invalidation	Target	Conviction	Why
1	SELL	Golden-pocket fade	1h rejection in 4,190 – 4,216	4,190.04 – 4,216.31	1d close > 4,264.79	4,058.68	60%	Daily trend down; DXY +1.4%; real 10y 2.21%; investing.com Strong Sell
2	BUY	Oversold scalp	Sweep of 4,125 S1, reclaim on 1h close	4,113.76 – 4,125.40	1h close < 4,093.08	4,157.72	40%	RSI 38.5 mature; GVZ 27.90 favours mean-reversion; 4h MACD constructive
3	SELL	Breakdown continuation	1h close < 4,113.76 with DXY > 101.00	4,113.76 – 4,120.04 (retest)	1h close > 4,146.08	3,962.40	35%	Breaks the 5-session low; weekly S1 4,058 the magnet on the way to S2

Net desk bias: SELL. Real yields, Fed-odds path, and DXY all point the same direction, and the daily technicals are aligned with the macro. The 4h is the only timeframe wearing a green hat, and it sits exactly at its EMA20 — i.e. it agrees with anyone with conviction. I weight the macro and the daily over the 4h bounce. The trade I want is fading the next push into the 4,221 – 4,245 golden pocket, with size sized for a stop above 4,265.

(not financial advice)

//@version=5
indicator("Gold Desk 2026-06-22 — bias SELL", overlay=true, max_lines_count=300, max_labels_count=300, max_boxes_count=100)

// ── Moving averages ──
ema20 = ta.ema(close, 20)
ema50 = ta.ema(close, 50)
ema200 = ta.ema(close, 200)
plot(ema20, "EMA20", color=color.new(color.yellow, 0), linewidth=1)
plot(ema50, "EMA50", color=color.new(color.orange, 0), linewidth=2)
plot(ema200, "EMA200", color=color.new(color.red, 0), linewidth=2)

// ── Swing anchors (last 5 sessions of the brief) ──
swingHi = 4323.72
swingLo = 4120.04
rng = swingHi - swingLo

// ── Fibonacci retracement of the swing high → swing low down-move ──
fib236 = swingLo + 0.236 * rng
fib382 = swingLo + 0.382 * rng
fib500 = swingLo + 0.5 * rng
fib618 = swingLo + 0.618 * rng
fib786 = swingLo + 0.786 * rng

hline(fib236, "Fib 0.236", color=color.new(color.gray, 40), linestyle=hline.style_dashed)
hline(fib382, "Fib 0.382", color=color.new(color.gray, 40), linestyle=hline.style_dashed)
hline(fib500, "Fib 0.500", color=color.new(color.silver, 20), linestyle=hline.style_solid)
hline(fib618, "Fib 0.618", color=color.new(color.silver, 20), linestyle=hline.style_solid)
hline(fib786, "Fib 0.786", color=color.new(color.gray, 40), linestyle=hline.style_dashed)

// ── Pivots (daily + weekly) ──
hline(4216.31, "Weekly P", color=color.new(color.white, 0), linestyle=hline.style_solid)
hline(4146.08, "Daily P", color=color.new(color.aqua, 30), linestyle=hline.style_dotted)
hline(4157.72, "Daily R1", color=color.new(color.aqua, 50), linestyle=hline.style_dotted)
hline(4190.04, "Daily R3", color=color.new(color.aqua, 50), linestyle=hline.style_dotted)
hline(4125.40, "Daily S1", color=color.new(color.aqua, 50), linestyle=hline.style_dotted)
hline(4113.76, "Daily S2", color=color.new(color.aqua, 50), linestyle=hline.style_dotted)
hline(4058.68, "Weekly S1", color=color.new(color.orange, 20), linestyle=hline.style_solid)

// ── Persistent drawing handles (only redrawn on last bar) ──
var box gpBox = na
var box supplyBox = na
var box demandBox = na
var box sellEntryBox = na
var box buyEntryBox = na
var box continBox = na
var line sellInvLine = na
var line sellTgtLine = na
var line buyInvLine = na
var line buyTgtLine = na
var line continTgtLine = na
var label gpLbl = na
var label supplyLbl = na
var label demandLbl = na
var label sellLbl = na
var label buyLbl = na
var label continLbl = na
var table biasTbl = na

if barstate.islast
    box.delete(gpBox)
    box.delete(supplyBox)
    box.delete(demandBox)
    box.delete(sellEntryBox)
    box.delete(buyEntryBox)
    box.delete(continBox)
    line.delete(sellInvLine)
    line.delete(sellTgtLine)
    line.delete(buyInvLine)
    line.delete(buyTgtLine)
    line.delete(continTgtLine)
    label.delete(gpLbl)
    label.delete(supplyLbl)
    label.delete(demandLbl)
    label.delete(sellLbl)
    label.delete(buyLbl)
    label.delete(continLbl)
    table.delete(biasTbl)
    // ── Golden pocket (0.5 → 0.618) ──
    gpBox := box.new(bar_index - 140, fib618, bar_index + 50, fib500, bgcolor=color.new(color.yellow, 80), border_color=color.new(color.yellow, 30))
    gpLbl := label.new(bar_index + 50, fib618, "Golden pocket 0.5–0.618", style=label.style_label_left, color=color.new(color.yellow, 60), textcolor=color.white, size=size.small)
    // ── Supply zone: weekly P up to daily EMA20 ──
    supplyBox := box.new(bar_index - 140, 4264.79, bar_index + 50, 4216.31, bgcolor=color.new(color.red, 82), border_color=color.new(color.red, 40))
    supplyLbl := label.new(bar_index + 50, 4264.79, "Supply 4,216 – 4,265", style=label.style_label_left, color=color.new(color.red, 50), textcolor=color.white, size=size.small)
    // ── Demand zone: daily S1 down to S3 ──
    demandBox := box.new(bar_index - 140, 4125.40, bar_index + 50, 4093.08, bgcolor=color.new(color.green, 82), border_color=color.new(color.green, 40))
    demandLbl := label.new(bar_index + 50, 4093.08, "Demand 4,093 – 4,125", style=label.style_label_left, color=color.new(color.green, 50), textcolor=color.white, size=size.small)
    // ── SELL idea 1: fade 4,190 – 4,216 toward weekly S1 ──
    sellEntryBox := box.new(bar_index - 10, 4216.31, bar_index + 50, 4190.04, bgcolor=color.new(color.red, 55), border_color=color.new(color.red, 0))
    sellInvLine := line.new(bar_index - 10, 4264.79, bar_index + 50, 4264.79, color=color.new(color.red, 0), width=2, style=line.style_dashed)
    sellTgtLine := line.new(bar_index - 10, 4058.68, bar_index + 50, 4058.68, color=color.new(color.red, 20), width=2, style=line.style_solid)
    sellLbl := label.new(bar_index + 50, 4216.31, "SELL fade · 60%\nT 4058.68 · Inv 4264.79", style=label.style_label_left, color=color.new(color.red, 25), textcolor=color.white, size=size.small)
    // ── BUY idea 2: scalp 4,114 – 4,125 toward daily R1 ──
    buyEntryBox := box.new(bar_index - 10, 4125.40, bar_index + 50, 4113.76, bgcolor=color.new(color.green, 55), border_color=color.new(color.green, 0))
    buyInvLine := line.new(bar_index - 10, 4093.08, bar_index + 50, 4093.08, color=color.new(color.green, 0), width=2, style=line.style_dashed)
    buyTgtLine := line.new(bar_index - 10, 4157.72, bar_index + 50, 4157.72, color=color.new(color.green, 20), width=2, style=line.style_solid)
    buyLbl := label.new(bar_index + 50, 4125.40, "BUY scalp · 40%\nT 4157.72 · Inv 4093.08", style=label.style_label_left, color=color.new(color.green, 25), textcolor=color.white, size=size.small)
    // ── SELL idea 3: breakdown continuation under 4,114 ──
    continBox := box.new(bar_index - 10, 4120.04, bar_index + 50, 4113.76, bgcolor=color.new(color.maroon, 50), border_color=color.new(color.maroon, 0))
    continTgtLine := line.new(bar_index - 10, 3962.40, bar_index + 50, 3962.40, color=color.new(color.maroon, 20), width=2, style=line.style_solid)
    continLbl := label.new(bar_index + 50, 4113.76, "SELL break · 35%\nT 3962.40 · Inv 4146.08", style=label.style_label_left, color=color.new(color.maroon, 25), textcolor=color.white, size=size.small)
    // ── Net-bias banner ──
    biasTbl := table.new(position.top_right, 2, 5, bgcolor=color.new(color.black, 25), border_width=1)
    table.cell(biasTbl, 0, 0, "Net bias", text_color=color.white, bgcolor=color.new(color.red, 50))
    table.cell(biasTbl, 1, 0, "SELL", text_color=color.white, bgcolor=color.new(color.red, 50))
    table.cell(biasTbl, 0, 1, "DXY", text_color=color.white)
    table.cell(biasTbl, 1, 1, "100.92 ↑1.39%", text_color=color.white)
    table.cell(biasTbl, 0, 2, "Real 10y", text_color=color.white)
    table.cell(biasTbl, 1, 2, "2.21% (-2bp)", text_color=color.white)
    table.cell(biasTbl, 0, 3, "Fed Jul hike", text_color=color.white)
    table.cell(biasTbl, 1, 3, "42%", text_color=color.white)
    table.cell(biasTbl, 0, 4, "Inv.com agg", text_color=color.white)
    table.cell(biasTbl, 1, 4, "Strong Sell", text_color=color.white)

{"bias": "SELL",
 "ideas": [
   {"bias": "SELL", "label": "Golden-pocket fade", "entry_low": 4190.04, "entry_high": 4216.31,
    "invalidation": 4264.79, "target": 4058.68, "conviction": 60},
   {"bias": "BUY", "label": "Oversold scalp", "entry_low": 4113.76, "entry_high": 4125.40,
    "invalidation": 4093.08, "target": 4157.72, "conviction": 40},
   {"bias": "SELL", "label": "Breakdown continuation", "entry_low": 4113.76, "entry_high": 4120.04,
    "invalidation": 4146.08, "target": 3962.40, "conviction": 35}
 ]}

TradingView chart script

Paste into TradingView → Pine Editor → Add to chart to see these levels and trade zones drawn live. (Also attached to the email edition as a .pine file.)

//@version=5
indicator("Gold Desk 2026-06-22 — bias SELL", overlay=true, max_lines_count=300, max_labels_count=300, max_boxes_count=100)

// ── Moving averages ──
ema20 = ta.ema(close, 20)
ema50 = ta.ema(close, 50)
ema200 = ta.ema(close, 200)
plot(ema20, "EMA20", color=color.new(color.yellow, 0), linewidth=1)
plot(ema50, "EMA50", color=color.new(color.orange, 0), linewidth=2)
plot(ema200, "EMA200", color=color.new(color.red, 0), linewidth=2)

// ── Swing anchors (last 5 sessions of the brief) ──
swingHi = 4323.72
swingLo = 4120.04
rng = swingHi - swingLo

// ── Fibonacci retracement of the swing high → swing low down-move ──
fib236 = swingLo + 0.236 * rng
fib382 = swingLo + 0.382 * rng
fib500 = swingLo + 0.5 * rng
fib618 = swingLo + 0.618 * rng
fib786 = swingLo + 0.786 * rng

hline(fib236, "Fib 0.236", color=color.new(color.gray, 40), linestyle=hline.style_dashed)
hline(fib382, "Fib 0.382", color=color.new(color.gray, 40), linestyle=hline.style_dashed)
hline(fib500, "Fib 0.500", color=color.new(color.silver, 20), linestyle=hline.style_solid)
hline(fib618, "Fib 0.618", color=color.new(color.silver, 20), linestyle=hline.style_solid)
hline(fib786, "Fib 0.786", color=color.new(color.gray, 40), linestyle=hline.style_dashed)

// ── Pivots (daily + weekly) ──
hline(4216.31, "Weekly P", color=color.new(color.white, 0), linestyle=hline.style_solid)
hline(4146.08, "Daily P", color=color.new(color.aqua, 30), linestyle=hline.style_dotted)
hline(4157.72, "Daily R1", color=color.new(color.aqua, 50), linestyle=hline.style_dotted)
hline(4190.04, "Daily R3", color=color.new(color.aqua, 50), linestyle=hline.style_dotted)
hline(4125.40, "Daily S1", color=color.new(color.aqua, 50), linestyle=hline.style_dotted)
hline(4113.76, "Daily S2", color=color.new(color.aqua, 50), linestyle=hline.style_dotted)
hline(4058.68, "Weekly S1", color=color.new(color.orange, 20), linestyle=hline.style_solid)

// ── Persistent drawing handles (only redrawn on last bar) ──
var box gpBox = na
var box supplyBox = na
var box demandBox = na
var box sellEntryBox = na
var box buyEntryBox = na
var box continBox = na
var line sellInvLine = na
var line sellTgtLine = na
var line buyInvLine = na
var line buyTgtLine = na
var line continTgtLine = na
var label gpLbl = na
var label supplyLbl = na
var label demandLbl = na
var label sellLbl = na
var label buyLbl = na
var label continLbl = na
var table biasTbl = na

if barstate.islast
    box.delete(gpBox)
    box.delete(supplyBox)
    box.delete(demandBox)
    box.delete(sellEntryBox)
    box.delete(buyEntryBox)
    box.delete(continBox)
    line.delete(sellInvLine)
    line.delete(sellTgtLine)
    line.delete(buyInvLine)
    line.delete(buyTgtLine)
    line.delete(continTgtLine)
    label.delete(gpLbl)
    label.delete(supplyLbl)
    label.delete(demandLbl)
    label.delete(sellLbl)
    label.delete(buyLbl)
    label.delete(continLbl)
    table.delete(biasTbl)
    // ── Golden pocket (0.5 → 0.618) ──
    gpBox := box.new(bar_index - 140, fib618, bar_index + 50, fib500, bgcolor=color.new(color.yellow, 80), border_color=color.new(color.yellow, 30))
    gpLbl := label.new(bar_index + 50, fib618, "Golden pocket 0.5–0.618", style=label.style_label_left, color=color.new(color.yellow, 60), textcolor=color.white, size=size.small)
    // ── Supply zone: weekly P up to daily EMA20 ──
    supplyBox := box.new(bar_index - 140, 4264.79, bar_index + 50, 4216.31, bgcolor=color.new(color.red, 82), border_color=color.new(color.red, 40))
    supplyLbl := label.new(bar_index + 50, 4264.79, "Supply 4,216 – 4,265", style=label.style_label_left, color=color.new(color.red, 50), textcolor=color.white, size=size.small)
    // ── Demand zone: daily S1 down to S3 ──
    demandBox := box.new(bar_index - 140, 4125.40, bar_index + 50, 4093.08, bgcolor=color.new(color.green, 82), border_color=color.new(color.green, 40))
    demandLbl := label.new(bar_index + 50, 4093.08, "Demand 4,093 – 4,125", style=label.style_label_left, color=color.new(color.green, 50), textcolor=color.white, size=size.small)
    // ── SELL idea 1: fade 4,190 – 4,216 toward weekly S1 ──
    sellEntryBox := box.new(bar_index - 10, 4216.31, bar_index + 50, 4190.04, bgcolor=color.new(color.red, 55), border_color=color.new(color.red, 0))
    sellInvLine := line.new(bar_index - 10, 4264.79, bar_index + 50, 4264.79, color=color.new(color.red, 0), width=2, style=line.style_dashed)
    sellTgtLine := line.new(bar_index - 10, 4058.68, bar_index + 50, 4058.68, color=color.new(color.red, 20), width=2, style=line.style_solid)
    sellLbl := label.new(bar_index + 50, 4216.31, "SELL fade · 60%\nT 4058.68 · Inv 4264.79", style=label.style_label_left, color=color.new(color.red, 25), textcolor=color.white, size=size.small)
    // ── BUY idea 2: scalp 4,114 – 4,125 toward daily R1 ──
    buyEntryBox := box.new(bar_index - 10, 4125.40, bar_index + 50, 4113.76, bgcolor=color.new(color.green, 55), border_color=color.new(color.green, 0))
    buyInvLine := line.new(bar_index - 10, 4093.08, bar_index + 50, 4093.08, color=color.new(color.green, 0), width=2, style=line.style_dashed)
    buyTgtLine := line.new(bar_index - 10, 4157.72, bar_index + 50, 4157.72, color=color.new(color.green, 20), width=2, style=line.style_solid)
    buyLbl := label.new(bar_index + 50, 4125.40, "BUY scalp · 40%\nT 4157.72 · Inv 4093.08", style=label.style_label_left, color=color.new(color.green, 25), textcolor=color.white, size=size.small)
    // ── SELL idea 3: breakdown continuation under 4,114 ──
    continBox := box.new(bar_index - 10, 4120.04, bar_index + 50, 4113.76, bgcolor=color.new(color.maroon, 50), border_color=color.new(color.maroon, 0))
    continTgtLine := line.new(bar_index - 10, 3962.40, bar_index + 50, 3962.40, color=color.new(color.maroon, 20), width=2, style=line.style_solid)
    continLbl := label.new(bar_index + 50, 4113.76, "SELL break · 35%\nT 3962.40 · Inv 4146.08", style=label.style_label_left, color=color.new(color.maroon, 25), textcolor=color.white, size=size.small)
    // ── Net-bias banner ──
    biasTbl := table.new(position.top_right, 2, 5, bgcolor=color.new(color.black, 25), border_width=1)
    table.cell(biasTbl, 0, 0, "Net bias", text_color=color.white, bgcolor=color.new(color.red, 50))
    table.cell(biasTbl, 1, 0, "SELL", text_color=color.white, bgcolor=color.new(color.red, 50))
    table.cell(biasTbl, 0, 1, "DXY", text_color=color.white)
    table.cell(biasTbl, 1, 1, "100.92 ↑1.39%", text_color=color.white)
    table.cell(biasTbl, 0, 2, "Real 10y", text_color=color.white)
    table.cell(biasTbl, 1, 2, "2.21% (-2bp)", text_color=color.white)
    table.cell(biasTbl, 0, 3, "Fed Jul hike", text_color=color.white)
    table.cell(biasTbl, 1, 3, "42%", text_color=color.white)
    table.cell(biasTbl, 0, 4, "Inv.com agg", text_color=color.white)
    table.cell(biasTbl, 1, 4, "Strong Sell", text_color=color.white)